Gartner has released a new report on the future of fitness-focused wearables, and in a break from most forecasts they break out the different form factors. The report enumerates five different categories for fitness wearables:
• Smart wristbands (Fitbit, Jawbone, etc.)
• Sports watches (Garmin, Timex’s OneGPS, etc.)
• Other fitness monitors
• Heart rate monitor chest straps
• Smart garments

Overall, smart wristbands lead the market at the moment, but the key here is “at the moment”. The market research firm actually indicates that the market for smart wristbands will decline in 2014 by 10 million units to a total of 20 million units shipped in 2013. In addition, the market for smart wristbands is expected to shrink further in 2015, to 17 million total units. More traditional health-monitoring sports watches are expected to take the place of many of these units, with that market expected to increase by 3 million units over 2014, to 21 million units.

Part of the reason why Gartner is so down on fitness-focused smart wristbands is that it is significantly edging into smart watch territory when it comes to pricing. Current Android Wear devices range widely in price and capabilities, but virtually all meet or exceed the capabilities of fitness bands at the moment (with the notable exception of battery life) while meeting a price point only US$25-50 more than the new generation Fitbit and Jawbone products. Gartner estimates that 50 percent of consumers considering a smart wristband will instead purchase a smart watch.

The market is expected to recover a bit in 2016 as more cost-effective screens and components come to market. In addition, the retail channels will change significantly as well. The report states: “25 percent of smart wristbands and other fitness monitors will be sold through non-retail channels. During this time scale, smart wristbands and other fitness monitors will be offered increasingly by gyms, wellness providers, insurance providers, weight loss clinics or employers, sometimes at subsidized prices or for free.”

On the other hand, Gartner is exceedingly bullish on smart garments – a significant and provocative statement considering that there are no major smart garment products on the market at the moment. While a virtually nonexistent category in terms of unit shipments in 2014 (Gartner estimates only 100,000 units shipped globally), it expects an explosion in innovation in the next two years, with 26 million being shipped in 2016. As the report notes, “Gartner believes that the smart garment product category has the greatest potential for growth going forward because the category is emerging from the testing phase and smart shirts are available to athletes and coaches of professional teams.”