Is Apple's "peak" over?

Apple is undoubtedly the most watched company in the world today. In the capital market, it is the company with the highest market value in the world and a super heavyweight in the Nasdaq, S&P and other stock indexes; in the technology sector, it is the company with the highest revenue; in the consumer sector, its revolutionary products have attracted countless 's loyal fans are crazy about it.

But the future of this dazzling company is being questioned by many analysts and investors. Since September 19, 2012, after Apple's stock price hit an all-time high of $705.07, due to a series of bad news such as iPhone sales falling short of expectations, by the end of January 2013, the total market value had evaporated by about $250 billion, equivalent to Lost a Google company. One can't help but ask: Has Apple begun to decline?

Innovation slowing down, just "snoozing"?

The most immediate reason for the pessimists is that post-Jobs Apple is no longer magical, and its successor, Tim Cook, has yet to prove that he can bring groundbreaking new products to the market. Both the market and consumers feel that Apple's products have changed from leader to follower. Whether it's the iPhone 5 or the iPad mini, it seems that Apple is still "taking the money".

But supporters don't think Apple is past its prime. In their view, it was the media's slaughter that caused Apple's stock price to fluctuate violently, and the "herd effect" of spectators amplified the confusing public opinion of "Apple's decline". Financially, however, Apple is as dazzling as ever. In the quarter, it achieved revenue of US$54.5 billion and net profit of US$13.1 billion, both setting a record high.

It is an indisputable fact that Apple's pace of innovation has slowed down and its competitors have risen rapidly. Apple's carefully built product lines and ecosystems, as well as its strong capital and scientific research strength, are also its advantages.

Can the "high moat" built by the unique business model be maintained?

Apple develops, designs, purchases and sells a range of hardware and software research and development. This business model creates a "closed" ecosystem. When it comes to Apple's "closure", the outside view seems to be both success and failure.

The bearish side believes that the "closed system" constructed by Apple is to control users, eat alone, and gain benefits from all aspects of the value chain. It is more fragile than the open system. The open ecosystem represented by Android will eventually defeat the closed system; It is believed that the App Store is relatively "closed" which makes it easier for APP developers to make money.

Will the battle for market share with camps like Anroid be won?

Android devices continue to improve in quality and are significantly cheaper than iPhones. At the same time, in the tablet market, the share of Google, Microsoft and Amazon tablets is growing.

But Apple's market share still has a lot of room for improvement, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. Cook said in the Q1 earnings conference call for fiscal year 2013 that the revenue growth rate of the iPhone in the Chinese market exceeded 100% in the fiscal quarter, and the sales channels in China have been greatly expanded.

In the future, with the further maturity of smartphones on other platforms, Apple's first-mover advantage will continue to shrink, and Apple's absolute dominance in the field of high-end products will be shaken. But Apple will not rest on its laurels, and the release of the iPad mini is the first battle of "reverse osmosis". The legendary cheap iPhone and large-screen iPhone are Apple's further weapon in terms of market share.

Can the innovative soul of Qiao continue?

How much Steve Jobs' departure in 2011 affected Apple, and whether Apple still has the ability to continue to innovate is a hot topic of discussion.

The lack of innovation in the new iPhone and iPad released by Apple last year has become a consensus in the industry, but it is also undeniable that the iPhone 5, iPad 4 and Mini are still the best products on the market. It's just that the pace of innovation and improvement has slowed down compared to previous generations. Whether this is a persistent dilemma or a temporary nap in pursuit of profit maximization is difficult to judge.

iTV, which has high expectations, may be able to reproduce the grand scene of the Steve Jobs era leading the product revolution. If iTV is as successful as it's portrayed, Apple's return to "Jobs rhythm" will be smooth and the Apple ecosystem will be more stable. All in all, the next generation of products will be the real touchstone for testing whether Apple is dead or the king is back.

Can strong funds and patent reserves be transformed into competitive advantages?

Sitting on $137 billion, Apple has enough money to buy up the vast majority of tech companies and startups to supplement businesses it lacks or doesn't have. Sufficient funding also brings more possibilities to Apple.

In addition to funding, patents are Apple's most powerful strategic asset. According to the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, Apple received 1,135 patents in 2012, an increase of 68 percent year-on-year. It can be seen that Apple is accelerating the pace of building its own patent arsenal for future product development and competition litigation.

Apple uses more patents to build a barrier to competition, which can slow down the pace of its opponents, but if it sticks to this, it will be ignoring the bells and whistles. Only by continuing to develop and innovate products can it maintain long-term competitiveness. Apple, which has a huge amount of capital, is also facing the trouble of happiness. It is difficult to choose whether to develop into a cross-industry enterprise group or stick to its duty.

Redefining "peak", Apple's advantage is still hard to shake

Like Apple, in the industry There are not a few companies that have achieved explosive growth and become industry leaders because of their revolutionary products. As far as Ford Motor, founder Henry Ford creatively introduced the Model T car produced by the assembly line, allowing Ford Motor to rapidly grow from a small manufacturer to one of the three giants that dominate the American auto market; as close as Apple's rival Google, revolution. Sexual search engines have not only dramatically changed the way people get information, they've also led to incredible growth in their performance. There are many such "miracles" of enterprise development.

This kind of enterprise that seizes the opportunity of industry development and grows rapidly can attract a lot of attention and praise during the period of rapid development. But when the industry's latecomers flock in and the competition intensifies, the "absolute advantage" of these companies will gradually shrink. But this does not mean that these leading companies will suffer a major blow. It is more likely that the market has become more mature due to increased free competition, innovation comes from more companies, product updates are faster, and the overall market cake Continuing to expand, leading companies will also gain more market opportunities.

Apple is at a time when "late entrants" are flocking in, and competition is inevitable. If Apple's "peak" is still defined as the state of "creating consumer demand" when Jobs first launched the iPhone and iPad, then Apple may no longer be able to achieve it, because "creative products" have a certain life cycle, and Apple is now in a state of "Keeping" the "success" stage of iPhone and iPad, these "cash cow" products can make Apple's financial statements extremely beautiful.

Apple's potential is not limited to this. The launch of potential products such as iTV and iWatch may help it return to the "peak". Of course, we have to wait and see whether it can be achieved.