UHD TVs: Television's future is here

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UHD TVs: Television's future is here

4K is increasingly seen to be the standard in the next few years, and content creators and distributors are on board. 4K TV prices are expected to drop while yield and capacity are on a high.

January 29, 2015

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4K is increasingly seen to be the standard in the next few years, and content creators and distributors are on board. 4K TV prices are expected to drop while yield and capacity are on a high.

By 2015, UHD TV shipments are expected to reach 47 million, according to KGI Securities.

UHD TVs, deemed not mass market-ready just two years ago, are the next big thing for TVs, at least based on what LG, Samsung, Sharp and Sony put on display at CES 2015. Also known as 4K TVs, such units display four times the resolution of 1080p sets and, despite the continuous lack of 4K content, are being promoted as a game changer in 2015.

Analysts agree. KGI Securities estimated that UHD TV shipments in 2014 reached 20 million units, or 8 percent of the global TV market. This number is expected to more than double to 47 million units in 2015, representing 18 percent of the projected total market.

Gartner is projecting a jump as well, pegging shipments at about 50 million in this year. Further, the research firm expects 4K TVs to make up 57 percent of global television production by 2018.

One reason behind the positive outlook is that while 4K TVs represent a relatively small market, process and technology advances in other TV segments have made UHD TVs significantly less expensive to produce.

According to KGI, the manufacturing cost differential between a 42in and under standard HDTV and 4K TV is now just 10 percent and 20 percent for larger units. The price gap remains significantly wider although average UHD TV quotes are expected to drop to below $2,000 in 2015.

In addition, low-cost mainland China brands are expected to boost 4K TV production and capacity this year. This will be especially apparent in smaller units as most mainland manufacturers focus on the ≤32in segment. Taiwan and South Korea suppliers, on the other hand, emphasize higher-priced, bigger-margin TVs at least 40in in size.

This specialization, and the fact that the largest investment in production has been made, indicates that prices in 2015 will drop significantly without sacrificing margins. This is on the assumption that China manufacturers do not make a marked increase in large-screen output and capacity this year.

4K content: Is there any?

Although 4K capability will be built into more LCD and OLED TVs this year, there continues to be limited 4K content available.Moreover, unlike the switch from SD to HD, many viewers will not be able to tell the difference betweenHD and UHD, especially on smaller screens.

Globally, only a few select channels broadcast in 4K while in the US, the FCC has just started testing the format. In an article about 4K TVs at CES 2015, TechHive said Comcast plans to launch later this year the Xfinity service in UHD as a Samsung 4K TV app. With it, full seasons of several hit shows will be available for viewing at no charge.

There is hope, however. It was announced recently that the UHD Alliance has been formed by a group of content providers and creators, and hardware manufacturers with the goal of increasing the amount of 4K content available to viewers.

The corporations involved are a who’s who of the entertainment industry, with Samsung, Sony, Panasonic, Sharp, Disney, Fox, Warner Bros., Netflix and Dolby aiming to create a “healthy UHD ecosystem.”

Although the Alliance was not formed until late-2014 and was formally announced at CES, it is a positive sign for the 4K TV industry and another potential driver for the technology.

Click here to download UHD TV's supplier comparison table.

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