In a recent report, market research firm Canalys predicted that 2015 is going to be the year of the smart band. Canalys breaks down the wearable band market into two segments, “basic” bands like fitness trackers and “smart” bands like the newer Android-based smart watches and the upcoming Apple Watch. Overall, Canalys expects that 43.2 million units will be shipped in 2015, representing an estimated growth of 129 percent year-over-year.

The more startling prediction is that 28.2 million of those units will be smart bands, according to the firm. This represents a significant change in the makeup of the market. At present, most estimates say that fitness bands make up roughly 75 percent of the market by units shipped.

Next-generation fitness bands from premium brands like market leader Fitbit are reaching price points approaching (or exceeding) US$200. While this is a significantly lower price point than the Apple Watch’s expected US$350 (minimum) price point, the smart watches like the LG G and the Samsung Gear Live smart watches are now retailing at US$200 or below. In addition, ever-disruptive Xiaomi recently announced its intent to release a US$10 basic fitness tracker into the market.

All of this points to smart watches being able to increase their relative share against the current market leaders. While Canalys’ estimates are more optimistic than those of other analysts, it really appears as though they are banking on the Apple Watch (and the brand loyalty of Apple consumers) to drive the smart watch category.