What opening up foreign banks will bring

China's banking industry is about to be fully opened up. From December 11th, corporate banks among foreign banks (that is, those registered in China) will be able to fully engage in RMB business and bank card business, and branches of foreign banks will also be able to It can absorb RMB fixed deposits of not less than 1 million yuan each time domestic residents. What impact will this major move have on China's financial industry, especially the capital market?

From the opening of the banking industry on December 11 this year, it is reminiscent of the full opening of the commercial retail industry to foreign investment two years ago (also from December 11). We have to admit that the entry of foreign capital has had a considerable impact on the domestic retail industry. If nothing else, the hypermarkets in big cities are basically foreign stores. Shanghai Hualian and Lianhua supermarkets once occupied a large market share. , Now Hualian Supermarket has been listed by Xinhua Group, and Lianhua Supermarket's operating performance is not satisfactory. But on the other hand, the entry of foreign capital has also promoted a major change in the commercial format. A number of new commercial formats, such as Suning, Gome, Yongle in the home appliance industry, Commodity City in the commodity market, and Dashang, Hualian Supermarket, etc. The rise of blue-chip business stocks has quickly formed consumer stocks with business and food as the mainstays in the stock market, and has become a representative of high-priced stocks.

The opening up of banking and commercial retail has similarities but not the same. The most important thing is that the banking industry is related to national security. The vast majority of China's commercial banks are absolutely controlled by state-owned assets. Even in private-owned banks like Minsheng Bank, the state has strict restrictions on the proportion of foreign equity participation. 20%. If it is said that some traditional commercial enterprises can gradually withdraw state-owned assets and let foreign capital and private enterprises take control, there is no such possibility in the banking industry, at least the four state-owned commercial banks are absolutely impossible. Because of this, the listed bank stocks will never be reduced to "shells" such as Hualian Supermarket in the foreseeable days. Although the service attitude of domestic banks makes the people quite dissatisfied, some of them will be opened to the outside world. Deposits, especially among high-end customers, are likely to be transferred to foreign banks.

Thinking about it carefully, in fact, bank equity should also be a "consumption concept", and should be mainly retail; but for a long time, most domestic banks have become "investment concepts", and bank loans are mainly for investment expansion. Enterprises are mainly wholesale, and banks' profits mainly come from the difference between deposits and loans, that is, the low deposit interest rate of the common people is exchanged for the high loan interest rate of enterprises. After opening to foreign capital, will the "investment concept" of domestic banks gradually shift to the "consumption concept"? It remains to be seen, but the business format is mainly based on salespersons (in the past, the salespersons had to bring us things, and the store had a price), and in the process of turning to customer-oriented, it is not difficult for us to find out, the first bank to change It will be the most valuable bank for investment. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which has the largest number of outlets in the country and has the closest relationship with the common people, is known as a retail bank. Will it be at the forefront of business reform?

By the end of this year, China has been joining the WTO for five years, and the transitional period of joining the WTO has ended. Looking back, the five-year entry into the WTO is exactly the process of "two out" and "three release", that is, the secondary industry (manufacturing industry) goes out, so that the whole world is made in China; the tertiary industry (service industry) is released Come in, from small professions like lawyers and accountants to big industries like commerce, real estate, and finance. As long as there is change, there will be opportunities (of course there will be risks), and from the capital market, investors must be keen to find and explore the trajectory between them. For example, in terms of "second exports", textiles and light industry have turned to electromechanical, steel and other products. A research report pointed out that from January to September this year, China's steel exports increased by more than 80%, becoming the fastest growing export and the strongest momentum. Even so, China's crude steel exports only account for 6.8% of crude steel production, which is far from the 20-50% export ratio of major steel exporters, that is, China's steel exports still have a lot of room, while foreign countries Steel prices are higher than the domestic price of 100 US dollars / ton, which is becoming the main reason for the recent surge in steel stocks. Similarly, in terms of "three releases", the full opening of the financial industry, including banking, securities, insurance, etc., will certainly bring significant investment opportunities. Since the beginning of this year, financial stocks have become the mainstream variety of IPOs, and each issue of shares has caused a sensation in the international capital market.

Perhaps, this is also a perspective on China's stock market from an international perspective.

This article is excerpted from First Financial Network (www.Amoney.com.cn) with permission