Behind the 1 billion gambling game: Who can win the future of Xiaomi Gree?

Following the December 12 "China Economic Person of the Year Awards Ceremony", Lei Jun and Dong Mingzhu made a 1 billion bet, and their "line battle" has become a topic of discussion among the media and the public. Just at Christmas, the two shouted in public again, dissatisfied with each other, and both thought they could win the "Gambling of the Century".

Lei Jun continued his old tune, believing that Xiaomi's asset-light, Internet marketing model has extremely high growth potential: "Because of such a leading business model and Internet operation methods, I think Xiaomi's growth rate in the next few years will be very high. There is still a chance to reach 100% speed. If it is 100% growth rate, the probability of surpassing Gree is very high, and it may not take five years.” Lei Jun said.

Dong Mingzhu also stayed true to the company, still emphasizing Gree's manufacturing and physical advantages, and was very confident in its own R&D technology and other advantages, "The previous 1 billion bet with Xiaomi was more out of self-confidence. This confidence comes from the fact that Gree has a good young team. I think the 1 billion must be that he lost to me."

We don't have to believe all the words of the big bosses. Which company boss doesn't say that their own products are the best? To say that the gambling contract is even more unreal, they are eager to hype it into the focus of public opinion, just to do a free corporate marketing. Ma Yun and Wang Jianlin's bet has been hyped by the media for a year, and they haven't shaken hands.

But CCTV grouped Xiaomi and Gree into one group, which is quite meaningful. As the host Chen Weihong said, the two represent different production modes. In the future, with the further evolution of the new Internet economy and the further transformation of traditional industries, will Xiaomi-style new model companies be able to soar all the way, or will companies with deeper industrial accumulation like Gree have more stamina? Let's look at the analysis of Wang Yunfei, a well-known media person and director of the Industry Department of "Finance and Economics Weekly":

This is a "century collision" between traditional industries and the Internet economy. Behind this bet, what Dong Mingzhu and Lei Jun are fighting for is not only the individual victory or defeat, but the judgment of the future direction of the entire China and even the world's economic model, as well as the battle of the route. Gree and Xiaomi represent the two poles of the global industrial economy.

Gree Electric Appliances, regarded by investment institutions as "the healthiest listed company in China", is a typical industrial giant: it researches core technologies, manufactures its own products, and wins users with performance and quality.

Xiaomi is a representative of a "light company" that uses Internet genes to subvert consumer electronics: zero factories, zero employees, and zero stores, only doing product research and development and user services, integrating upstream and downstream to create high growth.

One of the two companies is heavy and the other is light; one is real and the other is virtual; like the yin and yang fish of Tai Chi, it is also like the "Sword Qi Erzong" of Huashan, representing two routes, two flags, two lamp.

So, who do you like?

Many of my friends are staunch supporters of Xiaomi. They believe that the Internet has disrupted countless industries, most of which were once considered invincible, but are vulnerable to the Internet.

It is true that I am more optimistic about Xiaomi in terms of sales performance.

The Internet is a rapidly iterative and explosive industry. Based on highly loyal users, Xiaomi can easily copy the model on mobile phones to other fields, such as set-top boxes, soymilk machines, routers, and even air conditioners.

I don't doubt that it doesn't even take 5 years for Xiaomi to outperform Gree.

But if the performance is higher, does it really mean that the model is successful?

Not necessarily.

There is no factory to produce Xiaomi mobile phones, can they be made out of thin air?

Many people will say that it is not enough to find someone to produce them. If you don't produce it for me, I will find someone else to produce it. The Chinese factory does not produce it, but the best factory in the world can produce it.

This kind of thinking, if it is put into a company, there may be no problem. But if it is placed in one industry, one country, there will be big problems.

The Internet, especially the mobile Internet, is leading a new round of productivity change and industrial transformation, which is indeed the general trend.

But the mouse is nothing without cement. In the final analysis, the Internet is just a tool, and its core value is not to create new supply and demand, but to transform the productivity of real industries.

If you just want to be light and fast, leave the industrial base behind and focus on integration, once the competitor completes the industrial base encirclement and waits for the "fast company", there is only a dead end.

Therefore, we often see that within three to five years, "light companies" have grown from nameless companies to giant giants, and then fell into disrepair; and those "slow companies" that step by step seem stupid, but often endure for a long time. new.

Because of this, Ma Yun said: "If Xiaomi can still take this picture after 23 years, that's a skill."

Of course, if you look at the end point, the two paths are actually the same. Same way.

Gree started in traditional industry, but it also needs to use the technology and ideas of the Internet to optimize its own management, processes, channels, and even the entire strategy.

If Xiaomi wants to be a "long-distance runner" in the future, it must also establish a strategic depth of its own industrial foundation through offers, mergers and acquisitions, and capital marriages.

As judged by Yu Yang, Chairman of Analysys International, all companies may become Internet companies in 20 to 30 years.

In this sense, Xiaomi and Gree will be more complementary partners than rivals in the future.

If you expand your horizons and look at China, which is undergoing rapid industrial transformation, Xiaomi's "lightness" can be regarded as art, and Gree's "reality" can be regarded as Tao, both of which are indispensable.

There is no magic, just like a hand without a sharp blade, it is difficult to have the power to protect oneself when encountering a strong enemy.

With skill but without Tao, it is like a boy dancing with a sword. It looks mighty, but the actual danger is hidden.

As for the current situation, I am more willing to support Dong Mingzhu.

This is because the new economy is on the rise. When everything changes, people call it subversion, not to mention innovation. It seems that only by going online is the savior of the world. As long as it is the old system, it must be a backward productive force.

Even in traditional industries, there is no shortage of people who speculate to make quick money, and who are unscrupulous and risky.

Made in China has become a "cottage", roads, bridges and buildings are turned into tofu dregs, and Sudanese red poisonous rice is rampant, all because of this.

In such an environment, I would prefer that the Chinese be slower, stupid, and more industrial. This is the needs of the industry, but also the needs of the people.

Finally, referring to a circle of friends from former colleague Lang Lang:

As a former media person who has reported on traditional industries for many years and now works in an Internet company, I now have a deep feeling that the Internet will subvert all The idea of traditional industries is unfounded.

Perhaps the rapid development of the Internet in recent years and the surging capital behind it have made people in the Internet industry think that they are omnipotent, and even have an arrogant attitude and mentality in the face of traditional industries, and even some media people who report on the Internet industry. There is also Pride and Prejudice.

This is very dangerous. It is an arbitrary approach to deny traditional industries without studying them.

The future of the Internet may be a tool for traditional giants to upgrade, but it is a joke to say that existing Internet giants replace traditional industries. . . . . . In the future, the two will coexist for a long time. The scale of the Internet industry may be greatly increased from the current 300 billion, but it should still be a technology service industry. . . . . .