Buying a house and financing, safety first

Regulation, a new round of macroeconomic regulation and control has indeed appeared in front of us. Although there are many discussions and various opinions on this in the market, no matter what, the reporter It is believed that this points out a development direction in terms of policy. Judging from the content of this regulation, it mainly starts from several aspects such as market transactions, tax policies, bank loans, and the structure of the property market, which will also have a great impact on investors' future home purchase strategies. What everyone has to pay attention to is that in this case, the purchase of a house should pay more attention to the safety of funds.

Pay attention to the introduction of more stringent measures

First of all, home buyers should establish such an idea. From the perspective of macro-control, it has a long-term nature. In this case, this wave of property market adjustments will also be a Quite a long process, this is the first thing buyers should be aware of.

The Shanghai property market once showed signs of "recovery". At that time, there were many views that macro-control would be relaxed, and a new round of market upswing would appear in front of us. However, it turned out that the optimistic estimates of many people at that time were obviously wrong. The continuous rise in housing prices in Beijing, Shenzhen and other places finally triggered further government control measures, which once again verified our previous judgment on the trend of macro policies, so that home buyers should try their best to avoid various short-term operations in the current market. .

Since the macro-control is of a long-term nature, what buyers should pay attention to at present is whether more stringent measures will be introduced in the future. Judging from the current series of measures issued by nine ministries and commissions, although it has to be said that it is a heavy blow to the real estate market, there is still room for it in many aspects. What we need to realize is that, in fact, there can be many related control policies for the property market, such as the levy of personal income tax, the 20% tax rate will have greater "lethality" than the current business tax. In addition, there are also measures that can be used to further increase the loan-to-value ratio of banks, as well as the collection of land appreciation tax, real estate tax and property tax, etc., which can be used for regulation.

There is no profit margin for investment in the price difference.

It is worth noting that the policy introduced this time has extended the time limit for the collection of business tax from the original 2 years to 5 years, which will undoubtedly benefit those investors who want to obtain the difference in housing prices. have no small impact. In the case of the previous collection time limit of 2 years, many investors may have screened this period of time. Now that the time limit has been extended to 5 years, investors have only two options, either to extend the holding time, or to accept the increase in transaction costs. In this case, the profit margin of real estate investment will undoubtedly be greatly compressed, and the so-called "unprofitable".

Actually, the cost of investing in real estate should be considered from three aspects, one is investment, the other is expenditure, and the other is opportunity cost. Under the current circumstances, due to the continuous rise in housing prices, the initial capital investment of a property can be said to be quite large.

From the perspective of expenditure, the collection of business tax has greatly increased the transaction cost of the property market, and holding real estate also requires expenses such as property management fees, plus deed tax, transaction commission, loan interest, etc. Considering the opportunity cost of investing capital, a house needs to rise by 20% to guarantee our profit space.

In other words, if you buy a property now and plan to sell it for profit in the future, you have already paid a considerable capital cost at the moment of purchase, and judging from the current real estate market , it is obviously unrealistic to hope that the house price will rise by 20% and then make a profit. It can be seen that in the current real estate market, there is no profit margin for investment, and in the current circumstance that the opportunity cost of active surrounding markets is getting higher and higher, the "safety factor" of investing in real estate funds is very low.

Pay attention to self-preservation when buying a house

From another perspective, when buying a house under the current market situation, investors should pay special attention to self-preservation. In particular, we must pay attention to the risks of a single market, and avoid stepping into the trap of "unfinished buildings".

From the perspective of these policies, the first is that the market demand will be suppressed. For example, further reduction of the scale of relocation and demolition and increase of the loan ratio will make some buyers wait and see temporarily. At the developer level, the further reaffirmation of the 35% capital ratio and the requirement to accelerate the pace of construction will put huge pressure on their capital. Judging from the market situation, under the current situation of oversupply, many real estate projects have experienced a "zero transaction" situation, and the capital chain of these real estate developers is obviously facing the possibility of rupture. Anyone who has experienced the last wave of property market adjustment knows that under the circumstance that developers' funds are relatively tight, the biggest risk caused by "oversupply" is "unfinished buildings", which should not be taken lightly by the majority of home buyers.

In the current situation, you can pay more attention to the existing home. Buying an existing home is much less risky than an off-plan home. It is more intuitive and real. On the contrary, if a home buyer buys a house with a mortgage loan, and finally the developer's capital chain breaks and "unfinished" occurs, the home buyer will be caught in a dilemma at this time.

The area of suites will gradually become smaller

From the perspective of this regulation and control measures, it is very important to put forward the concept of a small area of 90 square meters, and put forward specific quantitative standards for its proportion. Although it is still difficult to implement this regulation, it represents a direction in the future, which has to attract the attention of home buyers.

For a long time, there has been a trend of larger and larger units in the construction process of real estate, but in actual use, many buyers find that it is not necessarily practical. And the most important thing is that now the house price is getting higher and higher, in the case that it is difficult to reduce the unit price for a while, it is a quite effective method to reduce the total price of the house. Judging from the situation in Hong Kong, my country, although the unit price of houses there is relatively high, due to the small area of the suite, the distance from Shanghai's housing price is relatively small in terms of total price.

In the long run, there will be a trend towards smaller house sizes, and it will be more integrated into developers' design concepts, because it is also beneficial to their marketing. For home buyers, it is necessary to gradually accept this concept and determine their own home buying strategy on this basis. Of course, it is not without opportunities for those buyers who like large areas. For example, they can buy two adjacent small-area houses and use them together, which requires some new ideas.

The principle of step-by-step house purchase is more important

From the current point of view, the possibility of a sharp rise in the property market in the future does not exist, so at present, the principle of renting first and then buying, and step-by-step purchase is particularly important . The so-called step-by-step house purchase refers to the concept of buying a house in a real estate market where buyers rent first and then buy, buy old and then buy new, buy small first and then buy large, buy ordinary first and then buy high-end, and invest in business first and then settle down for retirement.

In particular, it should be noted that because there are still many variables in the future market, for those buyers with average economic strength, renting first and transitioning is a good way to avoid risks. Generally speaking, whether to rent a house or buy a house, the first thing to do is to have a judgment on its current situation. This mainly focuses on the ratio of the sales and rental prices of the real estate. That is to say, if the price of the real estate is not high, but the rental price is relatively high, That's not to say it's a good time to rent. Conversely, if the price of real estate continues to rise, but on the other hand, the rental price has not risen or even fallen, and the ratio of sales to rent continues to expand, it is more favorable for renting.

Next, we have to have an expectation for the future of the property market. If the current property price is lower and there is a lot of room for future growth, then buying a house should be a good choice. However, if the price of the property market has reached a high level, the risk of the market will increase or the direction will be unclear. Renting a house will give you sufficient time to further observe the market, and the current changes in the Shanghai real estate market will give renters more reasons.

Investing in the property market requires long-term thinking

So, for those investors who have purchased multiple properties, how should they deal with the assets in their hands? The reporter believes that it can mainly be considered from the perspective of rental returns. For those properties with low rental returns, they can be sold as soon as possible. Even if the rental return can reach a certain ratio, it is necessary to establish a long-term thinking and increase rental income through various means.

In fact, the rental return rate is closely related to the rise and fall of real estate prices. In the future, the level of rent will be an important factor supporting real estate prices. In other words, properties backed by rental returns will be more resilient, while those with low rental returns will be at greater risk. From this point of view, investors should take maximizing the rental return rate as one of the main directions nowadays. We can grasp the following points: First, rent out the idle houses in your hands as soon as possible, and do not let The house is "rotten" in hand; secondly, for those properties with low rental returns or even unable to rent out, it is still necessary to consider selling as soon as possible at a suitable price; thirdly, we must use a variety of channels to expand financial resources and try our best to improve the quality of our houses. rental income.

Finally, in the long run, the real estate market is undergoing profound changes after several adjustments. In the previous wave of the property market, the overall performance of the real estate prices was a state of rising together, but what we need to realize is that even if the property market goes out of adjustment and enters a state of recovery in the future, it will no longer be a simple co-rising situation. , the trend of price differentiation will gradually manifest itself, and some real estates with their own defects will be eliminated, which is also what investors need to be psychologically prepared for.