Do not agree to argue! By 2020, China will still outperform the United States

Recently, the "2020 Top 10 Most Competitive Countries in the World" list released by Deloitte and the US Competitiveness Council predicts that by 2020, the United States will surpass China to become the most competitive manufacturing country. In this list, the United States, Germany and Japan, the top 3 veteran manufacturers, will still occupy 3 seats in the top 4 at present and in the future. Germany is in third place with its "Industry 4.0" initiative. The fifth to tenth places are India, South Korea, Mexico, Taiwan, Canada and Singapore.

The report points out that the convergence of digital and physical is accelerating, and the importance of digital technologies, including advanced sensors and the development of the Internet of Things, is growing. R&D policies vary from country to country, and R&D investment in the United States and China mainly involves electronics, pharmaceuticals, and mechanical equipment. Some countries have made more targeted investments based on the characteristics of their respective industries. For example, Japan and Germany have listed the automobile and electronics industries as development priorities, and more than 50% of South Korea's investment is in the electronics industry.

Manufacturing is an important manifestation of a country's comprehensive strength and international competitiveness. According to the report, by 2020, China will still be unable to outperform the United States. Whether you're convinced or not, let's look at some facts first.

1. Local: China's manufacturing industry is declining

First, the number of manufacturing enterprises is decreasing. The number of industrial enterprises in my country fell rapidly after reaching a peak of 453,000 in 2010, reaching 326,000 in 2011, and then slowly rising to 378,000 in 2014.

Second, the number of manufacturing employees is decreasing. According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing PMI dropped below 50 in the second half of 2015. 50 is a line of prosperity and decline, and below 50 indicates that the economy is in recession.

Third, freight growth rates are declining. Overall freight growth fell from 10% in 2013 to just 4.3% as of November 2015. Among them, the growth rate of railway freight has been negative in the past two years, and as of November 2015, it was -12.3%.

In 2011, President Obama launched "Select USA", a program that regards attracting foreign investment in the United States as a top priority, using it as an engine to promote job growth and economic development in the United States. According to data from the US Department of Transportation, the air cargo volume increased continuously: -3.39% in 2012; -0.84% in 2013; 5.17% in 2014.

2. External: The advantage of Chinese manufacturing is not there

There is a popular joke about Chinese manufacturing - the year before the death of former Apple CEO Steve Jobs, he was invited to the White House and Obama During the dinner, President Obama asked Jobs: "Can you bring the assembly of Apple products back to the United States?" Jobs smiled strangely and replied, "They will never come back!" For a long time, people have put "China The "manufacturing" victory all comes down to low labor costs. For example, Apple's iPhone, which costs $600 apiece, can be assembled in China by subcontractors like Foxconn. The assembly cost is less than $7, which is far lower than the cost of manufacturing in the United States.

However, after the shale gas revolution, domestic energy prices in the United States have been plummeting and productivity has increased rapidly, and the return of American manufacturing is no longer a joke. According to a 2013 study by the Boston Consulting Group, the average cost of manufacturing goods in the U.S. was only 5 percent higher than in China. In 2015, production in low-cost regions of the United States has become as cost-effective as production in China. Even more shocking is that by 2018, the cost of manufacturing in the US will be 2-3% cheaper than in China.

Not long ago, the manufacturing cost data of China and the United States given by a Zhejiang boss who is familiar with the manufacturing industry in China and the United States nakedly revealed this fact. 1. Land cost: China is 9 times that of the United States. 2. Logistics cost: China is twice that of the United States. 3. Bank borrowing costs: China is 2.4 times that of the United States. 4. Electricity/natural gas cost: China is more than twice that of the United States. 5. Steam cost: China is 1.1 times that of the United States. 6. The cost of accessories: China is 3.2 times that of the United States. 7. Tax cost: The United States has great tax incentives. 8. Customs clearance costs: The United States does not need to pay import and export customs clearance costs. 9. Labor cost: China's cost advantage is weakening. 10. Depreciation cost: The United States is 1.7 times that of China. 11. The cost of plant construction: the United States is 4 times that of China. In addition to depreciation and plant costs, it is entirely possible for the United States to become an "emerging" low-cost "world factory" in 10 years, just as Anbang Consulting has speculated.

3. National Layout: US - Free Trade VS China - Infrastructure

On October 5, 2015, the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) The United States, Japan and 10 other pan-Pacific countries have reached an agreement on the TPP. The 12 participating countries together account for 40% of the global economy, and the total trade volume accounts for about 1/3 of the world's total. The TPP will reduce or completely reduce tariffs on nearly 18,000 categories of goods. If the agreement is completely opened, not only the service industry, but also the industry and agriculture of the corresponding country will form circles and barriers with the service industry as a link.

Corresponding to the United States, Asia, where China is located, has 60% of the world's population, and is the region with the most economic vitality and growth potential in the world. The construction is seriously insufficient and the funding gap is huge. In 2015, China established the AIIB and implemented the Belt and Road Initiative. The core is to invest in construction, especially infrastructure, to drive and develop together.

So, by 2020, can China surpass the United States? Officers, what do you think?