Economic growth picks up, but the structure is still out of balance

According to the latest data released by the Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 7.8% year-on-year and 2.2% month-on-month. The first three quarters increased by 7.7% year-on-year. In this regard, the spokesman of the Bureau of Statistics, Sheng Laiyun, analyzed at the press conference that the main reasons for the recovery of economic growth in the third quarter are three aspects:

First of all, thanks to the State Council's timely innovation of macro-management methods and a clear control range, this has a great impact on It has played a positive role in guiding social expectations and enhancing the development confidence of enterprises. When the confidence of enterprises is enhanced and social expectations are stable, they are willing to sign contracts and expand investment.

The second aspect is that since the first quarter, the Party Central Committee and the State Council have launched a series of policies and measures to adjust the structure, stabilize growth, and promote reform in an orderly manner, injecting new impetus and vitality into the stable operation of the economy. For example, changes in the administrative system with streamlining administration and delegating powers as a breakthrough point, as well as the reform of interest rate liberalization, have created a good environment for business operations and are conducive to stimulating the investment vitality of private enterprises. Intensifying the transformation of shanty towns and strengthening environmental protection, including the "Broadband China" strategy introduced some time ago, and encouraging information-based consumption, these aspects are all conducive to mobilizing and stimulating domestic demand potential.

The third factor may have something to do with the recovery, stabilization and improvement of foreign economies. Many developed economies have been slowly recovering from the second quarter of this year, which has played a positive role in expanding or stabilizing exports. .

Interpretations from all parties:

Research on Finance and Securities of Renmin University of China Wu Xiaoqiu, director of the institute, said that the data itself is relatively good, in line with previous market expectations, and even more optimistic than expected. However, he also pointed out that the country still has the problem of overcapacity and should pay attention to the adjustment of the industrial structure and the transformation of the economic structure.

Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher at the Decision Consulting Department of the National School of Administration, believes that now China's economy has stabilized, and it is a good result to operate between 7.5 and 8. In his view, this year's GDP data has not continued to decline after falling for two consecutive quarters, which shows that the economy is showing signs of improvement. state. He believes that compared with other countries in the world, China's economic growth is not a problem, but the key problem is the imbalance of the economic structure.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, told the media that it is certain that the economy will stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. In the short term, there is no doubt that the economy will stabilize. , exports and other data all showed an increase, indicating that the total demand is expanding significantly, indicating a recovery in the third quarter. This is mainly from the double growth of external demand and domestic demand. Lian Ping also mentioned that the investment boom is an important factor in this economic recovery, contributing 4.2% of the 7.8% growth, and is expected to reach a 20.4% investment growth rate for the whole year. After the new government came to power, the financial support was strong, and the investment fever, especially credit, could not be reduced all of a sudden. He explained that the response of financial policy support generally takes 3-4 quarters and can last for 3-4 quarters. Therefore, the policies introduced in the second half of last year will not be implemented until the third quarter of this year, and will continue to be in the first half of next year.

However, Lian Ping believes that this kind of good economic performance is only temporary, and there may be fluctuations in the third quarter of next year. On the one hand, the income level of urban residents in the first half of the year fell, which was lower than GDP growth for the first time in three or four years. It was related to the stock market conditions, employment pressure, and weak exports. If the financial support was exhausted and consumption was not stimulated, then GDP growth may be affected. In addition, the distribution area of overcapacity has expanded, the pressure has intensified, and it will take a long time to adjust. During the adjustment process, the shutdown of enterprises may spread to the banking industry, resulting in adverse effects.

Wang Jianzhuo, professor of economics at China Europe International Business School, also believes that the growth of GDP in the third quarter is mainly supported by the micro-stimulus policy to drive the real estate market, which is unsustainable, and the key lies in changing the economic development model.

Liu Fuyuan, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, pointed out that from the data released, the previous slowdown in economic growth was just a "cold spring", not a winter. He said that with the approaching of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, new reform measures are expected to be introduced, and everyone's confidence will gradually recover, which will play a supporting role in China's economy, and it is expected that the economy will continue to improve next year. Liu Fuyuan predicts that the annual GDP is expected to be close to the level of about 8%.