Economic stability, all parties look forward to the reform of the Third Plenary Session

The initial value of the HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rebounded to 51.2 in September, hitting a new six-month high. Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC China, analyzed that the improvement in domestic and foreign demand conditions has driven growth to continue. The new orders index hit a six-month high, while the output index was at a five-month high.

A rebound in demand such as exports drives the economy back up

The index of new export orders returned to expansion territory for the first time in six months. The improvement in the demand side promoted the inventory replenishment activities of enterprises, and the purchase price and purchase volume both rebounded. Purchasing inventories also returned above 50 for the first time this year. Investment has picked up, and exports have picked up to accelerate production. It is expected that GDP in the third quarter may rebound from 7.5% in the second quarter to 7.8% year-on-year.

The economy has returned to a steady growth track, raising expectations for the reforms of the three types of plenary sessions of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in November. Ding Yifan, deputy director of the World Development Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told the media that with the obvious trend of economic recovery and the convening of the three plenary sessions, a lot of reform energy will be released. Because from historical experience, the Third Plenary Session is often the time node when reform measures are introduced and policies at the decision-making level become clear. For more than 30 years of reform and opening up, it is an indisputable fact that it has now reached the "deep water area" of reform. Therefore, whether the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee can have breakthrough reforms in some areas has become the focus of public opinion.

Three Obstacles in the Reform Process

Professor of Central University of Finance and Economics Han Fuling recently wrote an article in the media and pointed out that there are three major obstacles in the reform process:

First, the proportion of the interests of the government and the people is divided, the government's power is growing, government approval, industrial policy, financial policy, land policy and state-owned Monopoly enterprises and other means affect the operation of the market to a large extent;

Second, land finance has become half of the local government's reliance;

The third is the strengthening of the interests of state-owned enterprises, especially monopoly state-owned enterprises.

The Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee has high expectations for reform

These obstacles are all institutional problems and require top-level reforms to straighten them out. Analysts believe that household registration, finance and taxation, and land will become the three core reform topics of the plenary session. At present, the reform of finance, taxation and household registration is relatively clear, but it is still difficult to reach a consensus on land reform, and it is difficult to make breakthroughs at the Third Plenary Session.

According to the assumptions of Wu Jinglian, Chi Fulin and other experts, the new round of reforms that are already on the line will be a profound change to further promote marketization, rule of law and democratization, as well as a reform that optimizes the power structure and promotes power transparency. . The reform is expected to achieve breakthroughs in the administrative system, the household registration system, the rural land system, the people's livelihood, the ecological field, and the cadre and personnel system, and then establish a socialist economic and social management system that is increasingly mature on the basis of the rule of law.

Entrepreneurs need to pay close attention to the expected impact of policies

The perspective from the entrepreneur is more specific. Liu Chuanzhi, Chairman of Legend Holdings, said when attending the 10th anniversary celebration of Hony Capital, "In the end, we must pay close attention to the trend and dynamics of policies as to how to make arrangements in the industry. Recently, we have held frequent meetings to study policy trends and analyze if policies are more liberalized. How do we do it, and what do we do if we tighten it up. With the gradual transmission of some signals, China's economic policy has gradually become clear, and we have become more and more at ease, and we are more assured that the economic policy will be further opened in the future. "

When analyzing the basis for this judgment, Liu Chuanzhi listed several reasons: 1. In the financial sector, allowing private enterprises to enter the bank is a step more open than before. 2. Urban construction allows private enterprises to enter and participate, which is also very open. 3. The issue of farmers' land rights confirmation has received attention. If the development of the real estate market is normalized in the future, local governments can rely more on tax revenue instead of land sales to obtain income, which will bring sustainable development momentum to the local area. 4. The development of urbanization, the transfer of a large number of people from rural areas to cities, ensures that the real estate industry will not swarm, but it will not be restricted to develop. 5. Attention is paid to the service industry, especially basic service industries such as education and medical care, which will solve the employment of a large number of people.

Liu Chuanzhi, who is "in business and business", has a profound grasp of the policy direction. The new reform measures have been implemented a lot, but the resistance is not small, which can be seen from the opposition from the relevant departments in the establishment of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone. For entrepreneurs, although they cannot influence policy reform, it is very necessary, like Liu Chuanzhi, to maintain a high degree of attention and in-depth analysis, and conduct sand table deductions for different policies.