Research firm Gartner predicts that by 2016 smart watches will comprise about 40 percent of all consumer wrist-worn devices. Improvements in the design and the UI of newer devices including Google’s Android Wear and Apple’s Watch will be the most important single feature to drive the change.

In addition, the growing installed base of fitness trackers and bands is expected to grow, but more at the expense of fitness watches than smart watches. Gartner recently conducted a consumer study that indicated that there are more fitness bands in US households than dedicated sports watches, and it expects this trend to continue.

As others have noted, however, there will be significant issues related to battery use and size in the short term, and this may be a significant drag on adoption. Building any small electronics device will be a balance between power-hungry capabilities, battery size, and physical form factor. Batteries that have the capacity to last for days will result in a larger device than may be less stylish; a smaller battery size will provide a more pleasing form factor, but will run low on power too quickly for many users.

One note of interest is that while Gartner expects the high end market to expand greatly on the back of a better user experience, mass adoption requires a lower price point – something that China’s low cost supply chain can deliver. Angela McIntyre, research director at Gartner, said “Chinese vendors might be able to bring Android Wear based smart watches to very affordable price points around US$30 with decent designs and sensors — driving mass market adoption."