While Apple posted a banner quarter for iPhone (and Mac) sales last quarter, one product line has been in a steady decline. Despite 21.4 million units shipped in Q4 2014, Apple shipped about 18 percent fewer iPads in the quarter than the previous year. According to KGI Securities, that decline is expected to accelerate significantly in the first quarter of 2015.

How bad is it? KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, generally considered to be the best analyst in forecasting Apple’s performance, stated in a recent research note that only 10.1 million units will be shipped in Q1 2015, a 38 percent decline from Q1 2014. This estimate is actually lower than the estimated number of iPhone 6 Plus shipments for the quarter – Apple is expected to ship just over 15 million of the phablets this quarter. Kuo notes that the tablet lacks “killer application status,” something that it may not be able to achieve in the near future.

While Apple is still trying to refresh the iPad line, slow buying cycles for high-end tablets like the iPad make a turnaround less likely, despite selling about 63 million units in 2014. Nevertheless, the large install base for the iPad makes it valuable to accessory makers – as buyers hold on to their tablets longer, they may add accessories like cases, screen protectors, Bluetooth speakers, and other add-ons to make the most out of the devices.