Property market regulation, the arrow is on the line

Excess liquidity has accelerated the rise in housing prices. Some market researchers noticed that in April, residents' new consumer loans increased by 19.7 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5 billion yuan year-on-year. After a period of slow growth, household consumption loans began to show positive signs of a year-on-year increase. Combined with the current real estate data, the researcher estimates that this may be caused by the reactivation of home purchase credit by residents when real estate prices have not fallen significantly.

Multi-pronged approach to regulating real estate

Data show that the current imbalance between real estate supply and demand is increasing, housing prices are rising faster, and restraining housing prices has become the consensus of the whole society.

"The real estate is definitely overheated. Beijing is now like Shanghai last year. The real estate is overheated. The government needs to carry out macro-control."

The central government is ready to take action. The Premier of the State Council presided over an executive meeting of the State Council on May 17 to study measures to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry. These measures include further exerting the regulatory role of taxation, credit and land policies. Strictly implement policies related to housing development and sales, improve tax policies for housing transfers, adjust credit policies in a differentiated and appropriate manner, and guide and adjust housing demand. Scientifically determine the scale of land supply for real estate development, strengthen land use supervision, and stop land hoarding.

The CICC report pointed out that the government's possible real estate control measures will have a depressing effect on real estate demand. As the various control policies in 2005 have not been relaxed, the effect of the recent interest rate hike on the industry has not yet been reflected, and the government will still introduce a series of control policies in the future. The intensification of the contradiction between the government and the local government will increase the uncertainty of the future housing price trend. CICC believes that control policies are still difficult to bring about a decline in housing prices in the short term.

The view of the CICC report is that the policies that may be introduced in the near future will be comprehensive and gradual, and land policy, tax policy and credit policy will be more likely. Among them, policies such as revitalizing the stock of land, increasing the down payment ratio, and raising interest rates will have a greater impact.

Because of the obvious regional differences, it is less likely that national regulatory policies will be introduced, and more will be regional. The representative regional markets for the recent policy introduction will be cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou where housing prices have risen too fast, as well as some second-tier cities.

“The suppression of housing prices in second-tier cities will be easier than in first-tier cities.” CICC made a judgment.

Demand will be suppressed

Xiangcai Securities macro analyst Zhou Wei believes that "under the policy of stimulating domestic demand, the real estate control policy may not be too strict."

In the context of the appreciation of the RMB, the value of real estate and the value of real estate companies does have a lot of room for growth. Recently, the market generally expects that the government (especially the central bank) may introduce more stringent real estate control policies, such as the rumored "50% mortgage". This was mainly due to the surge in bank credit and fixed asset investment in April.

Zhou Wei believes that the increase in bank credit in March and April was because there were too many people speculating in real estate, or was it because the bank had too much money? If it is the latter, then raising the deposit reserve ratio should be a relatively straightforward choice.

As for the funds for real estate speculation, it is believed that since the regulation in 2005, the people who continue to invest and speculatively speculate in real estate may be less sensitive to the extent of mortgage loans. At the same time, directly increasing the mortgage ratio will also have a real impact on the purchasing power of potential home buyers who have housing needs. However, the specific balance relationship is not easy to quantify, but at least the government will have this aspect in terms of policy. consideration.

Most experts said that the current 30% down payment ratio is already at a relatively reasonable level, and if it continues to increase, more and more people will not be able to buy a house. Therefore, the feasibility of such an operation by the central bank is very small.

Regulation has not yet cured the root cause

Other control measures that the central bank can use include adjusting interest rates, credit scale and money supply, etc. However, these measures are strongly affected by the expectation of RMB appreciation, and the room for operation is relatively limited.

Dr. Yin Zhongli, Institute of Finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that in the context of increasing pressure on RMB appreciation, if interest rates are raised, more hot money will flow into China, and foreign exchange reserves will grow at a faster rate . In order to stabilize the exchange rate, the central bank must release more RMB base currency to the market. It can be seen from this loan interest rate increase that the monetary policy-making authority is very cautious about the change of deposit interest rate. While raising the loan interest rate, the deposit interest rate has not been raised. The widening of deposit and loan spreads will increase the impulse of banks to issue loans, which may lead to policy failure.

At present, the root cause of China's rising housing prices is the deficiencies of the three major systems, namely the deficiencies of the housing security system, the deficiencies of the tax system and the deficiencies of the political system. In the short term, the government cannot eliminate the above-mentioned three system defects, and the fundamental problems of the real estate market cannot be completely solved in the short term. Experience shows that it is difficult to achieve the expected results by relying too much on the administrative department to regulate the real estate market. The policies of some cities to adjust the real estate market by administrative means may temporarily have a certain impact on the stock market, but the upward trend of the real estate market is difficult to change.

The strength of real estate stocks is hard to disappear

Guotai Junan believes that from the comprehensive consideration of various international and domestic macroeconomic factors, the domestic real estate industry will always become a target of macroeconomic policy control, which will be an unchangeable reality. However, the impact of this regulation will mainly be to regulate the volatility of the market, but not to change the trend of the market. This trend includes the growth of commercial housing prices. What I am worried about now is not that the industry market will experience negative growth, but that the growth rate of sales this year is More than 30% or the following problem.

As for housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai, the CICC report stated that the first quarter data showed that the growth of Shanghai housing prices continued to be suppressed, but the leading indicators showed that the new increase of commercial housing in Shanghai will be very limited in the future, and Shanghai housing prices may drop sharply However, the housing prices in Beijing increased substantially in the first quarter, and the supply increment was limited. Judging from the changes in supply and demand, the rise in housing prices will still be difficult to restrain in the next period of time.

"Investing in real estate stocks is more profitable than investing in real estate stocks." A securities analyst said, "With the fundamental stability of the real estate industry, the continuous appreciation of the RMB will not end, and the strength of real estate stocks will be difficult to really subside. The appreciation of the RMB The asset revaluation effect on real estate is far greater than its stimulating effect on real estate supply and demand."