Subversive technological changes are approaching foreign trade companies

China's foreign trade data from last year have fluctuated and fluctuated, which is confusing. Some can be explained by the sluggish consumer demand caused by the weak economic recovery in the United States and Europe, and some can be explained by the deliberate falsification of coastal local officials, but these are temporary. . From the perspective of global trends, since 2008, the growth of international trade has been only slightly higher than the growth of global GDP, and between 1990 and 2008, the growth rate of international trade was twice that of GDP, which shows that foreign trade The space is no longer as easily expandable as it once was. The rise of protectionism, the rise in transportation prices, and the narrowing of production cost spreads in various places are all factors, and the biggest impact will be the changes brought about by high-tech.

Professor Christensen of Harvard Business School's 1997 best-selling book, "The Innovator's Dilemma," studies the once-popular Digital Equipment Corp., Polaroid As leaders in their respective industries, such as Xerox and Xerox, because of their overconfidence in their immediate achievements, the disruptive technological impact brought disasters. Class, reborn from the ashes.

Interactive topic: Which revolutionary technologies are you most optimistic about in the fourth industrial revolution?

"Disruptive innovation" has become a mantra in management science, widely quoted and almost flooded. Recently, another Harvard professor, Le Pohl, published a long article on "Rethinking Innovation", challenging Christensen to innovate and win, but not all disruptive technological innovations can bring progress to society, sometimes It has become a humanistic and philosophical discussion, but in the ruthless market, the impact of technological changes on enterprises has not slowed down. In 1958, public companies stayed on the S&P 500, the most valuable US company by market capitalization, for an average of 61 years; now it is 18 years. These turbulent waves have brought accelerated elimination to emerging markets through globalization.

China's achievements in foreign trade are obvious to all, making some enterprises believe that as long as they stick to it, they can overcome all difficulties. An efficient supply chain still retains the advantages of labor-intensive low-end manufacturing, which is more competitive than the later Vietnam and Bangladesh. Although the afterglow is still there, China's low-end manufacturing is facing the limit of tapping its potential. If it does not actively respond, the future will be bleak.

Economists study the epoch-making changes brought about by the Industrial Revolution, summed up as five times, each 50 to 60 years. The first was the birth of machines and factories starting in 1771, followed by steam engines and railways in 1829; heavy industry by steel and electricity in 1875; and energy-driven industrialization to mass production in 1908, the application of petroleum Drives the automotive industry; the most recent change, led by digital, information and communication, started in 1971. The first four revolutions were in the manufacturing sector, while the most recent one brought the information society and digital economy. In the past, every scientific and technological progress, from the laboratory to the market, after a period of time, the innovation of core technology slowed down, and the main progress was to improve efficiency, sales operations, achieve production with economies of scale, and spread the application to the entire economy. A typical example is the automotive industry.

The digital revolution has brought unprecedented continuous innovation, almost everywhere, and the speed of price popularization is shocking and dizzying. Ten years ago, it was unimaginable that a few hundred yuan could buy a smartphone, and besides communication, these digital technologies are also applied in different industrial fields, subverting the way of operation and business model in the past. A significant portion of existing assets and foundations suddenly became obsolete. Some companies had to cut prices and cut expenses to maintain their operations by killing chickens and taking their eggs. As a result, they were struggling to survive and were eventually eliminated from the competition.

The development of China's manufacturing industry is almost synchronized with the information revolution, and it has not slackened in upgrading the industrial chain for many years. Low-priced smartphones made in China are sweeping the world. Six large Chinese mobile phone companies expanded their global market share to about 30% in the second quarter, which has begun to squeeze the performance of global giants such as South Korea's Samsung Electronics. The Xiaomi mobile phone came out of nowhere and jumped to the fifth place in the world sales rankings in a short period of time. Apple and Samsung reached a consensus on Aug. 6 to drop their lawsuits outside the United States, with the two giants reluctant to compete with each other to prevent Chinese-made mobile phone fishermen from profiting.

Technological changes currently challenging Chinese exporters include robotics and 3D printing. Toyota Motor's Yokohama plant replaced 96% of labor with 760 robots, so labor costs may no longer be an important part of costs in the future. When manufacturing companies in developed countries plan to set up factories overseas, saving labor costs will no longer be the deciding factor. 3D printing does not rely on mass production, although the cost per unit is high, considering the flexibility in time and storage costs, it will be attractive. Some analysts predict that in the future, auto parts can be produced almost locally near dealers and repair sites in the cities where consumers are located, rather than being supplied by mass production in China.

At present, none of the world's 50 largest robot and 3D printing equipment manufacturers have Chinese companies, but China is ready to fight. According to statistics, in 2013, one-fifth of the buyers of robots in the world's manufacturing industry were Chinese-funded enterprises. Maybe China will become the world's largest robot manufacturing country, but the impact of this high-tech automation on traditional exports will be huge.

A word I often hear: persevere, persevere in one industry, persevere in one direction, to put it bluntly, it means adapting to all changes with the same have no choice. Language often determines attitudes. If a person is used to clichés and follows the same rules, he becomes relatively numb to changes in the outside world, and even takes an attitude of resistance to changes. In an age of technology-led change, this is self-marginalization.

How to deal with these constant disruptive changes? First of all, it is necessary to admit and accept that changes are the norm. Entrepreneurs cannot stick to them foolishly. They must be keenly aware of and track these changes, and think about how these changes happened. What is the nature like? Do these sudden changes have the same impact on your own business as on your competitors' business? How to integrate existing resources, including the entire series of products, customer relationship network and brand value? Can adjustments be made to turn disruption into a competitive advantage to develop new products, expand markets and create new profit models?

Zhou Naiping, Editor-in-Chief of CEConline, Visiting Professor of School of Media Design, Sun Yat-Sen University. Ms. Zhou taught East Asian history at American University and financial news at Hong Kong University. She was a senior reporter for Reuters, the founder and director of the Global Finance Project at the School of Journalism and Communication of Tsinghua University, and the author of International Financial News Knowledge and Reports. Op-eds represent personal views only.