who caused the rise in house prices

Recently, according to data recently released by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Bureau of Statistics, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country rose by 5.5% in the first quarter, of which Dalian, Hohhot and Shenzhen rose by more than 10%. According to data from the Beijing Real Estate Information Network, the average residential price in the first quarter of this year was 7,168 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of about 15%. And from the current point of view, not only some hot spots, but also many other cities have experienced a rapid rise in housing prices, showing a trend of spreading wave by wave.

According to the general understanding, the rise in housing prices is absolutely inseparable from developers. However, recently, the remarks of several arrogant real estate developers are quite shocking. A few days ago, Ren Zhiqiang, a celebrity in the real estate industry, confessed his scheming in an article: "I think this round of housing price increases is a dangerous signal." Pan Shiyi also admitted in an interview: "I am worried, especially worried. This year's real estate prices have risen very strangely. , it is not normal. When any kind of product rises abnormally, something will definitely happen. There are two dangerous signals at present. One is that the housing prices across the country are rising, and the vacancy rate is also rising rapidly. Housing prices are rising fast. The performance of supply exceeds demand, and the rising vacancy rate is a signal that the house cannot be sold, the conclusions drawn by these two indicators are exactly the opposite."

As we all know, developers have always been absolute "bulls" in housing prices, but now It is absolutely unusual for them to be panicked by the rise in house prices. Correspondingly, according to the central bank's questionnaire survey of urban depositors in the first quarter of 2006, the current residents' willingness to buy housing has hit a record low.

At the same time, it is the first anniversary of the current macro-control measures, but there is a rising trend of housing prices that makes developers also fear. It must be said that it is an embarrassing "anniversary". original intention. So people can't help but ask, since both developers and buyers are about to quit, who else is there "unwilling to be lonely"? Unfortunately, we can't help but now come to the conclusion that some relevant departments may be far more fearless than those "empty-handed and white-wolf" developers, who are far more anxious about the adjustment of housing prices than they are about rising. doubt. In this regard, the author has already put forward his own point of view in the previous articles of the main forum. This worry is that when the real estate market was in a trend of adjustment at that time, many policy signals were quite puzzling. The "land hooking" policy, the "covering the market" measures were adopted in order to stabilize housing prices, and so on.

In addition, the real estate industry has suddenly become an industry with overcapacity, and various measures to stimulate consumption can be said to emerge in endlessly. account policy. At that time, many experts also shouted, it seems that the "rescue" of the market cannot wait, including the resumption of the tax rebate policy and the reopening of re-mortgage. But now the fact is that the rapid rise in housing prices in the real market has triggered calls for another regulation, and it is urgent. Perhaps the results of one positive and one negative may cause people to wonder: when the market first adjusted, were those "favorable" measures too hasty, because the role of policy often lies not only in itself, but also in the bigger picture. Aspects are still implicit radiation effects.

Actually, experts have foresighted the current situation for a long time. Yin Zhongli of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences once proposed that if the regulation of the market is relaxed, the result will be disastrous. The reason is that in an investment product market, when external forces change the trend of the bull market, there will be two choices. One option is that prices continue to fall, completely changing the bull market fantasy of investors; the other option is to fall If it continues to rise after a small range, then the rise after the fall will be more rapid. These words are not difficult to understand, so why do some people turn a blind eye to it? In my opinion, the key is that the interests are the most important. There is a "mutually beneficial relationship" between the local government's fiscal and tax revenue and real estate prices. , but also have the impulse to support the market.

This is actually a layer of window paper, and someone must pierce it. Previously, the State Council issued the "Eight National Regulations", which proposed the establishment of a government responsibility system, and those who failed to control the rapid rise in housing prices should be held accountable. The responsibility of the responsible person. However, it has been more than a year since the introduction of the "National Eight Regulations", and now that housing prices have seen such a high rise, which local government officials have been held accountable for failing to curb housing prices? But I think it is really time to ask, otherwise, developers will be scared away, and buyers will be unable to bear it. No matter how high the housing price is, it can only be a mirage, and the whole society will be damaged in the end.