Retail worldwide is in a tough place: EU-27 retail trade volumes have remained largely flat-to-declining since 2022. A British Parliament briefing from July 2026 describes the retail industry as facing a “permacrisis” since 2008. In the US, retail spending is trending lower in part due to inflation – "American consumers are showing signs of fatigue," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in commentary issued last month. Chinese consumers are trading down and prioritizing value amid economic uncertainty, with the most recent Bain report finding broad discretionary retail categories (apparel, cosmetics, electronics) underperforming essential goods.
But while general retail contracts, sports & outdoor keeps posting strong growth. The sporting goods market size is expected to grow from $106.04 billion in 2025 to $112.52 billion in 2026, per Mordor Intelligence, and forecast to reach $151.43 billion by 2031 at 6.11% CAGR over 2026–2031.
According to the Sports & Fitness Industry Association's 2025 State of the Industry Report, the US sports and fitness sector grew 2.9% in 2024, outpacing national GDP growth for the year. A joint analysis from Oliver Wyman and the World Economic Forum projects the worldwide sports economy expanding from roughly $3.7 trillion by 2030 to as much as $8.8 trillion by 2050, provided the industry can navigate headwinds like physical inactivity trends and climate-related disruptions to sporting events and supply chains.
The Current Anchors: US & Europe
Despite pressure on domestic retail, the US and Europe remain the largest revenue bases fo the sports & outdoor sector thanks to mature brand ecosystems, established athleisure and outdoor lifestyle cultures, and higher per-capita spending.
Margins here are getting a boost from consumers trading up rather than down. A January 2026 report from Technavio highlights premiumization in the category, with brands leaning into product innovation – advanced materials, performance technology, sustainability credentials – to
justify higher price points. For sports and outdoor retailers, this means healthier unit economics: fewer markdowns, stronger brand loyalty, and a
customer base willing to pay more for gear perceived as technically superior or built to last – a dynamic largely absent from struggling categories like fast fashion or general merchandise, where price sensitivity continues to erode margins.
The New Frontiers: APAC, Africa, Middle East
In the Asia–Pacific region, a rising middle class, urbanization, fitness culture growth, and ecommerce penetration are combining to offer new opportunities in sports & outdoor product retail. In the Middle East, sports tourism growth is a promising channel, alongside government-backed sports economy investment like the Saudi Vision 2030-style initiatives. Markets in Africa are nascent but fast-growing. A young population and increasing disposable income are driving footwear and apparel demand. These regions are the growth engine for sports & outdoor, while the US and Europe provide the base.
The Offline Anchor: Why Physical Retail Still Matters
Even as ecommerce dominates general retail, sports & outdoor retains strong reliance on brick-and-mortar stores. Sports and leisure equipment is a significant purchase for many consumers in a way that everyday apparel or consumer goods are not: a pair of football boots, a hiking stick, gym clothes, these are all items that the customer will rely on, often over a long period of time, to provide comfort and protection from injury. As a result, trying on or testing products, checking the real fit, and getting expert advice for education-heavy purchases such as shoes or technical outdoor gear, all push consumers toward in-store shopping. Stores also function heavily as a showroom fro sports & outdoor brands: even online-influenced purchasers browse in-store first. Retailers who invest in experience- and service-driven stores are capturing this demand.
Conclusion
While the broader retail narrative is one of caution and contraction, sports & outdoor tells a different story – global, resilient, and still growing. Potential headwinds include aging populations, and a trend toward lack of active participation in sports in certain markets. Nevertheless, sports & outdoor products are showing a resilient trajectory.
