Overcoming the high point to be consolidated

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For the ups and downs of the index, from the perspective of the overall price-earnings ratio, the Indian market has undergone a significant adjustment to 35 times, which will give us some inspiration. The Chinese market is more characterized by plate rotation. The blue-chip market is the main hot spot at this stage, but the characteristics of the market will change frequently.

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The market has successfully hit the 2000-point mark on November 20, hitting a new high in 5 years and 4 months. To stand firm at an important juncture often requires consolidation before advancing to a higher point. "It's not surprising that the broader market is adjusting now," a market source said. "Because the Shanghai Composite Index has easily surpassed 1,800 and 1,900 points recently and has not undergone a deep adjustment, it is inevitable that there will be certain repetitions in the short term."

Consolidation is inevitable

In fact, it has become a general consensus among investors that the market has entered a bull market cycle. Under the background of excess capital liquidity, if there is no strong external influence, investors' optimism will become the dominant factor. , the market is more likely to continue to maintain volatility in the short term. However, market participants reminded that, contrary to the general psychological state of investors, the risk of the stock market is gradually accumulating during the rising process, so in the short term, the market needs to consolidate and digest after a rapid rise.

Tianxiang Investment Advisor analyst Qiu Yanying believes that although the blue-chip stocks in the broader market have risen a lot at present, there is no obvious sign of heavy volume or shipment. It is still in the process of correction. From the perspective of increase, it is more prominent, but to a reasonable There will be a relatively mild consolidation in the price area, and it should basically be said to be in place at present. But it may also need to be judged from the different performance of different companies. At present, large-cap stocks have reached a more reasonable area. If there is another wave of the market, it will be extremely unfavorable for the future trend.

Qiu Yanying believes that the broader market will be consolidated within 40 or 50 points above and below 2000 points, possibly until the annual report announcement period. During this period, there will be a new adjustment process based on performance expectations, and there should be no greater upward momentum. "This is also a normal market trend."

In the early stage of market evolution, stock price rises and stock price structure adjustments caused by institutional changes or a conceptual change are often very drastic. Under the condition that the optimistic expectations for this market have not changed, the trend will be a relatively moderate upward trend, a small-step upward trend.

Also look at the value of the company

Zhu Ping, deputy general manager and investment director of GF Fund, summed up the current market characteristics as follows: the point is not low, the capital is large, the economy is not bad, and the space is not small.

The overall stock price of large-cap stocks cannot be said to be overvalued, but individual stocks do exist in bubbles. Regarding the ups and downs of the index, from the perspective of the overall price-earnings ratio, the Indian market has undergone a significant adjustment to 35 times, which will give us some inspiration. The Chinese market is more characterized by plate rotation. The blue-chip market is the main hot spot at this stage, but the characteristics of the market will change frequently. In essence, the key is the company's value, and the stock price should change around the company's value.

In other words, in the short term, whether they can chase large-cap blue-chip stocks again depends on whether they have better performance support next year. Qiu Yanying said that, for example, large-cap value stocks and leading stocks are in a state of reasonable valuations, and small and medium-cap stocks are misunderstood by the market. They may have a demand for rising or compensating for rises. Although large-cap stocks have the pressure to pull back, However, blue-chip stocks in small and mid-cap stocks also have requirements to rise, resulting in no significant rise or fall in the market, which is different from the callback in June and July. That round of market conditions was not based on valuation, but a reaction to growth expectations. Currently, it is due to valuation adjustments, and there will be no adjustments like those in June and July.

Analysts pointed out that investors should closely observe the disk in the near future to prevent the emergence of short-term tops. There is a view that when the index rises by more than 3% in the short term, the market has a requirement for adjustment. The basis for the specific judgment is that the index has a large negative line, and the leading stocks and leading sectors are experiencing heavy volume stagnation. For example, if these signs appear in ICBC, Baosteel, and Shanghai local stocks, investors should be highly vigilant.

Will the possible adjustment of Hong Kong stocks have an impact on the A-share market?

The market trend of "Black Monday" occurred in Hong Kong stocks this Monday. Although the Hang Seng Index fell sharply by 228 points, the decline in state-owned enterprises was much smaller. If there is no major adjustment in state-owned shares, the impact on domestic A shares is relatively limited. If there is a relatively large adjustment of state-owned enterprise stocks, the impact on the A-share index will be relatively large, and a relatively large adjustment may occur. Because the current market is about 40% of the weight of bank stocks, the impact on the index will be more obvious. "Like now, the index is rising, and most stocks are falling. Maybe the next index is falling, and most stocks are rising."

No need to be afraid of heights

Although there are short-term adjustment requirements, the The long-term remains optimistic. CITIC Securities predicts that the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to rise for a period of time after rushing out of 2000 points, and there may be a small technical correction, and then challenge the previous high point again. A real bull market is underway, and investors don't need to be afraid of heights in front of 2000.

Actually, the historical 2000 points are not comparable to the current 2000 points. If the A-share composite index is weighted by tradable shares, the current point is still more than 30% away from the historical high.

While the broader market continues to hit new highs, more than two-thirds of individual stocks are undergoing adjustment, and the phenomenon of stock price structure differentiation is further intensified. "This is a correction to the low valuation of large-cap stocks in the previous period." CITIC Securities pointed out.

Compared with the international stock market, the PE and PB values of domestic A-shares are in the upper midstream. That is, from the perspective of valuation, the current A shares are basically at a reasonable level. Under the circumstance that the valuation is basically reasonable, investors' psychology and capital supply have become the key factors leading the market trend in the short term.

For the market outlook, most views believe that the broader market still maintains a volatile and rising pattern. The key lies in how investors grasp the structural investment opportunities.

In the overall atmosphere of the bull market, investors will continue to chase industry sectors that may bring excess growth in the medium and long term, but any growth concept must ultimately fall on real performance growth.

“For more than 3 months, the market has basically fluctuated and climbed in the direction of the 20-day moving average. If the short-term rise is too strong and the deviation rate is too large, the market may rest, but as long as the closing index is not lower than the 20-day moving average The average line, you can continue to hold bullish positions, the midline upward trend has not changed, and it is expected to rewrite the record high." said an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Securities.

The structural adjustment is not over yet

It can be expected that the structural adjustment of the stock price will continue amid the market volatility. In the case of a large divergence in stock price trends, value and growth are the themes. Ju Bohui, research director of Quam Fund, said that from the perspective of Shenzhen market performance, the structural adjustment of small and medium stocks is still continuing. Although the short-term repetition cannot be completely ruled out, the medium and long-term trend of the broader market will still maintain a certain upward pattern. Under the strong impact of the hot sectors where the mainstream funds are concentrated, the long market with an upside of 2000 points will continue. Stocks that were previously stagnant will have a chance to rise in the future under the strength of the broader market.

Du Changyong, investment director of Industrial Fund Management Co., Ltd., said that China's overall economic strength, continued appreciation of the renminbi, and ample funds will drive the continued bull market pattern in China's securities market. In this case, investors should adopt a more aggressive investment strategy and increase their allocation to stock assets. In stock selection, the proportion of large-cap blue-chip stocks should be increased. At the same time, it takes growth investment as its core investment strategy, emphasizes the quality and sustainability of growth, and pays attention to investment opportunities brought about by asset injection, overall listing, mergers and acquisitions, and institutional changes.

In terms of industry, Du Changyong believes that financial services, real estate, food and beverages represented by banks, insurance, securities companies, consumer industries such as real estate, food and beverages, independent innovation equipment manufacturing, and steel, media, and health industries are still rising. space.

Researchers from Shenyin & Wanguo believe that growth stocks that have suffered deep adjustments in the early stage may become the next driving force for the market, and even push the market to continue to rise. Growth stocks have undergone an up-front correction, creating a good buying point for investors. At present, the growth-oriented companies among the 300 companies in Shenwan (the EPS growth rate in 2006 exceeded 50%, and the compound growth rate in the next three years exceeded 30%). 21.6 of the market. Companies with high growth should enjoy higher valuations. The fundamental factors that initially favored these high-growth companies have not changed significantly.

Maybe today's market makes people realize that in a bull market, not all stocks rise and fall together, and it is not easy to make a profit. Analysts said that investors must have their own basic investment philosophy, and it cannot be said that all opportunities must be exhausted. If you can find valuable stocks, you can also get your own income. Even if Buffett is faced with existing growth stocks and value stocks, he will definitely choose value stocks, even if Internet stocks are so high that he will ignore them.

Domestic investors are confused because they haven't formed an idea yet. If the concept changes back and forth, a short-term opportunity will be pursued. If the concept is not established, it is difficult to guarantee that it will still be profitable in the future. If you maintain a stable concept, you will basically be able to maintain sustainable profitability.