Survey on China's Export Business Prosperity

Abstract: The survey data shows that the current price pressure is still very high, and it is difficult to reduce the price in the short term. According to the current macro situation, we judge that the price increase in August and September is very likely to hit a new high for the year.

Generally speaking, it is not optimistic for enterprises to obtain financial support through loans, but compared with 3 months ago, the problem of loan difficulty has eased slightly. However, we have noticed that the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, the two most market-oriented regions in China, have the highest ratios of very difficult and very easy loans; this shows that the corporate financial market in this region is relatively developed, and the problem of financing difficulties for high-quality companies has been resolved. , funds are no longer a bottleneck for the development of the region.

The survey data shows that Chinese companies have relatively sufficient orders, and the micro-foundation of China's economic growth is solid; however, we also noticed that the order index of Chinese companies is on a downward trend, which also shows that China's economic outlook is currently relatively complicated. This year's macroeconomic policies A high degree of flexibility must be maintained.

Companies generally feel that the export boom is declining compared with last year. In particular, it should be noted that the data in this survey is worse than the survey data in May this year, indicating that entrepreneurs are not optimistic about the export situation in the second half of the year. In addition, China has introduced a systematic policy to curb exports. We judge that in the second half of the year China's export growth will slow down

Currently, the rapid growth of production factor prices has become the most important factor affecting the production and operation of enterprises. From the perspective of different regions, the rapid increase in labor costs has a greater impact on the eastern coastal regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the Bohai Rim and other eastern coastal regions, while the increase in the intensity of environmental regulation has a greater impact on the central and western regions. Businesses in the Midwest are more reliant on lower environmental standards.

Insufficient supply of senior talents has restricted China's economic growth and industrial upgrading.

At present, China's economy is still optimistic, but the risk of economic downturn has become higher and higher; in the second half of this year, the industrial growth of the central and western regions, especially the central region, will still be faster than that of the eastern region.

The world economy is still in a sluggish state, and it is still difficult to get rid of the impact of the financial crisis in a short period of time, but the pessimism has improved slightly.

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In October 2009, in May 2010, Global Sources, the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the China Industry and Enterprise Competitiveness Research Center, and the "China Economist" magazine jointly conducted a questionnaire survey on Chinese export enterprises , which aims to understand the judgment of enterprises on the current economic situation and medium and long-term trends. In August 2010, the above-mentioned institutions jointly conducted a new round of questionnaire survey on enterprises. This report is an analysis report based on the latest research data.

I. Sample size and distribution

This survey is aimed at exporting enterprises. In the survey, a total of 1386 questionnaires were received. From the perspective of the industry distribution of enterprises, most enterprises are located in labor-intensive industries, accounting for 66.1% of the total; a small number of enterprises are located in capital-intensive industries, accounting for 11.7%; and 22.2% are located in other industries.

The vast majority of enterprises are located in the eastern coastal area, accounting for 82.3%, of which the Yangtze River Delta region accounts for 35.1%, the Pearl River Delta region accounts for 24.8%, the Bohai Rim region accounts for 10.1%, and other eastern coastal regions account for 12.3%. There are fewer enterprises located in the central and western regions, accounting for 11.5% and 6.1% respectively. Overall, the distribution of enterprises in various regions is basically consistent with the distribution structure of China's economy among regions.

Second, the upward pressure on prices is still at a high level.

Figure 1 shows the survey data on the judgment of the future raw material price trends of enterprises at three different times. In this survey, from an overall point of view, companies are not optimistic about the future trend of raw material price changes. Among them, more than half (69.3%) of the companies believe that the price of raw materials will continue to rise in the future, 28.3% of the companies believe that the price of raw materials in the future will be basically the same as the present, and only about 2.4% of companies believe that the price of raw materials will continue to decline in the future.

Figure 1 Enterprises' judgment on the price changes of raw materials in the future

Based on the survey data, this research group constructed the China Export Price Leading Index CEPPI (or China Export Price Expectation Index CEEPI). The CEPPI of the three surveys are respectively 71.8, 84.0, 83.5i1, as shown in Figure 2. At present, CEPPI is still at a high level. It can be judged that the current price pressure is still very high, and it is difficult to reduce the price in the short term. According to the current macro situation, we judge that the price increase in August and September is very likely to hit a new high for the year.

Figure 2 Price Rising Index Chart

In terms of different industries, more than half of the companies in any industry hold the same view, that is, the prices of raw materials will continue to rise in the future. Industry and reproduction of recording media (88.9%), wood processing and wood, bamboo, rattan, palm and grass products (85.7%) and handicrafts and other manufacturing industries (83.0%). The most optimistic industries are transportation equipment manufacturing, chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing, and textile industry. The number of companies that hold the view that the price of raw materials will continue to decline in the future accounts for 8.2% and 6.9% respectively. and 6.3%. Judging from industry-specific data, the gap between PPI and CPI may narrow in the second half of the year (Figure 3).

Figure 3 Enterprises' judgment on the future trend of raw material prices (by industry)

By region, more than half of the companies in any region believe that the price of raw materials will continue to rise in the future. Among them, the situation in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Bohai Rim and other eastern coastal areas is similar, and the proportion of enterprises holding this view is roughly the same, accounting for about 70%. The western region has the largest proportion of enterprises (35.3%) who believe that future prices will be basically the same as now, the largest proportion of enterprises (7.1%) who believe that prices will continue to decline in the future, and the least proportion (57.6%) who believe that prices will continue to rise. The situation in the central region is between the east coast and the west (Figure 4). It can be seen that there are slight regional differences in the judgment of future raw material price changes; due to the high degree of export-orientedness in the eastern region, it can be judged that the upward pressure on export commodities will be higher than the upward pressure on domestic prices.

Figure 4 Enterprises' judgment on the future trend of raw material prices (by region)

Three, the problem of difficulty in corporate loans is slightly alleviated

The problem of difficulty in corporate loans is slightly alleviated. Generally speaking, it is not optimistic for enterprises to obtain financial support through loans (as shown in Figure 5), but compared with 3 months ago, the problem of loan difficulty has eased slightly. The difficulty level of enterprises in obtaining loans is the highest among ordinary enterprises, accounting for 39.68% of the total; the number of enterprises with very difficult and relatively difficult access to loans accounted for 13.28% and 26.55% respectively; the number of enterprises with relatively easy and no problems in obtaining loans respectively accounted for 13.56% and 6.93%. It can be seen that in terms of obtaining loan support for enterprises, the number of enterprises that are more pessimistic (more difficult and very difficult) accounted for 39.83%, and the number of enterprises that were more optimistic accounted for 20.49%. twice as much.

Figure 5 Difficulty in obtaining loans for enterprises (comparison of the results of the three surveys)

Based on the survey data, this research group constructed the corporate loan availability index. shown in Figure 6). It can be seen from the figure that the three corporate loan ease indexes are all less than 50, indicating that the company has been in a situation of loan difficulties. In addition, the degree of difficulty first intensified and then improved. In general, during the survey period, the company Loan difficulty is more difficult than in October 2009, but eased from May 2010.

Figure 6 Changes in Corporate Loan Ease Index

In terms of industries, the industries with the most difficulty in obtaining loans are the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and the petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industries, which are very difficult to obtain loans The sum of the proportions with more difficult and more difficult is 65% and 66.7% respectively. In addition, more than half of the industries include rubber products industry (56.25%), textile and garment, shoe and hat manufacturing (53.93), agricultural and sideline food processing industry (52.00%) and instrumentation, culture, and office machinery manufacturing (52.17). The industry with the easiest access to difficulties is the extractive industry, and the sum of the proportions of its enterprises getting loans relatively easily and without problems is 44.44% (Figure 7).

Figure 7 Difficulty of obtaining loans for enterprises (by industry)

By region, there was little difference in the ease of obtaining a loan. The sum of the proportion of enterprises with very difficult and relatively difficult access to loans in each region is about 40%, and the sum of the proportion of enterprises with relatively easy and no problems in obtaining loans is about 20%. However, we have noticed that the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, the two most market-oriented regions in China, have the highest ratios of very difficult and very easy loans; this shows that the corporate financial market in this region is relatively developed, and the problem of financing difficulties for high-quality companies has been resolved. , funding is no longer a bottleneck for the development of the region (Figure 8).

Figure 8 Difficulty of obtaining loans for enterprises (by region)

Fourth, the micro-foundation of China's economic growth is solid

The survey data shows that the micro-foundation of China's economic growth is solid; only 27.63% of businesses have insufficient orders. 3.39% of enterprises have a lot of orders and no longer accept new orders; 26.12% of enterprises have sufficient orders, and the enterprises need to operate at full capacity; 42.86% of enterprises have many orders and can maintain normal production; only 27.63% of enterprises have insufficient orders , the production of the enterprise is intermittent (as shown in Figure 9).

Figure 9 Status of orders received by enterprises (comparison of the results of two surveys)

Our research team constructed an order index for Chinese enterprises based on the survey data. shown), all greater than 33.33, indicating that Chinese companies have relatively sufficient orders. However, we have also noticed that the order index of Chinese enterprises is on a downward trend, which also shows that China's economic outlook is currently relatively complex, and this year's macroeconomic policies must protect a high degree of flexibility.

Figure 10 Changes in the index of orders received by enterprises

In terms of industries, the industries with the best orders are the manufacturing of cultural, educational and sporting goods, leather, fur, feather (down) and its products, and mining In the industry, the proportion of enterprises with insufficient orders is about 10%. The industries with the worst order status are the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and the agricultural and sideline food processing industry, both of which account for more than half of the total number of companies with insufficient orders (Figure 11).

Figure 11 Status of orders received by enterprises (by industry)

In terms of regions, there is little regional difference in order status. Only the proportion of enterprises with insufficient orders in the western region is slightly larger than that in other regions, at 32.94%, and the proportion of enterprises with many orders is also slightly larger than that in other regions, at 5.88% (Figure 12).

Figure 12 Enterprise order status (by region)

V. There are big differences in the judgments of enterprises on exports

In general, there are big differences in the judgments of enterprises on exports in the next three months. Among them, 20.49% believe that the export volume will be significantly lower than the average level of the same period last year, 17.75% believe that the export volume will be slightly lower than the average level of the same period last year, 22.29% believe that the export volume will be basically the same, and 22.29% believe that the export volume will be Slightly higher than the average level of the same period last year accounted for 29.00%, and 10.47% believed that the former would be significantly higher than the latter. The more optimistic views accounted for 39.47%, and the more pessimistic views accounted for 38.24%, which were roughly equal. It can be seen that there is a lot of uncertainty in the future export situation, and there are large differences in the judgments of different companies (Figure 13).

Figure 13 The company's judgment on the export situation in the next three months (comparison of two survey results)

Based on the survey data, this research group constructed the export prosperity index of Chinese enterprises. The indexes of the second survey were 48.75 and 47.5 respectively (as shown in Figure 14), both of which were less than 50, indicating that the enterprises generally feel that the next period of time will be similar to that of last year. The relative export boom is declining. In particular, it should be noted that the data in this survey is worse than the survey data in May this year, so the outlook for exports in the second half of this year is worrying.

Figure 14 Changes in the export status index of enterprises in the next three months

In terms of industries, the industries with the most pessimistic judgments on the export situation in the next three months are instrumentation and culture, and office machinery manufacturing. 69.57% of the companies believe that the export volume will be lower than the average level of the same period last year, more than half of them. The industries with the most optimistic judgments are the textile industry and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry. Both 59.38% and 56.25% of the companies believe that the export volume will be higher than the average level of the same period last year, both of which are more than half (Figure 15).

Figure 15 Enterprises' judgment on the export situation in the next three months (by industry)

By region, there are slight differences in the judgment of the export situation in the next three months in different regions. Among them, the most optimistic is the economically developed Pearl River Delta region, which believes that the export volume will be higher than the average level of the same period last year, accounting for 44.77%; the most pessimistic is the western region, which believes that the export volume will be lower than the average level of the same period last year. 45.88% of the number of enterprises (Figure 16).

Figure 16 Enterprises' judgment on the export situation in the next three months (by region)

6. The rapid increase in the cost of production factors has become the main factor affecting the operation of enterprises

Currently, the rapid increase in the prices of factors of production has become the most important factor affecting the production and operation of enterprises. During the survey, 971 enterprises chose to increase labor costs too fast when answering the current major factors affecting the operation of enterprises, accounting for 70.06% of the total number of enterprises, the largest proportion; those who thought that the rapid increase in raw material prices was a major influencing factor The number of enterprises is 902, slightly lower than the labor factor, accounting for 65.08% of the total. 49.86% of the companies chose to increase the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. The influence factor of increasing the intensity of environmental regulation has the least impact on the operation of enterprises. The number of selected enterprises is 438, accounting for 31.60% of the total (Figure 6.1).

Figure 17 Comparison of Factors Affecting Business Operations

By industry, among the four types of factors that affect business operations listed above, the industry that has the greatest impact on business operations due to rapid increases in labor costs is plastic products The industry with the least impact is the smelting, rolling and processing industry of ferrous metals; the industry that has the greatest impact on the operation of enterprises is the metal products industry, and the industry with the least impact is the petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry; the intensity of environmental control increases The industry that has the greatest impact on business operations is the extractive industry, and the least impacted is the printing industry, the reproduction of recording media and the rubber product industry; the industry that has the greatest impact on business operations from the rapid rise in raw material prices is the ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry, and the least impacted industry. for the extractive and metal products industries (Figure 18).

Figure 18 Comparison of Factors Affecting Enterprise Operation (By Industry)

By region, the rapid increase in labor costs has an impact on the eastern coastal areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the Bohai Rim and other eastern coastal areas The possible reason is that the eastern coastal area is economically developed, and labor costs increase faster than other areas. In addition, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations has a greater impact on the eastern coastal area, which is related to the high degree of export-oriented enterprises in the eastern area. On the contrary, rising raw material prices and increased environmental regulation have a greater impact on the central and western regions, indicating that enterprises in the central and western regions rely more on regional natural resources and lower environmental standards.

Figure 19 Comparison of factors affecting enterprise operation (by region)

7. China's economy is still optimistic

Most companies believe that China's economy will remain in the current state for a period of time, accounting for 44.23%; 31.24 % of enterprises believe that China's economy is overheated and there will be downside risks; 24.53% of enterprises believe that China is still in a rising stage.

Figure 20 Enterprises' judgment on China's economic development (comparison of the three survey results)

The research group constructed the Chinese Economic Entrepreneur Index based on the survey data. 46.75 (as shown in Figure 21). As can be seen from the figure, in the first survey, the companies were optimistic about China's economic change index greater than 50, but the results of the second and third surveys were both less than 50. Combined with the current economic situation in China, our judgment is: China's economy is still optimistic, but the risk of economic downturn has become higher and higher.

Figure 21 Changes in China's Economic Change Index

In terms of industries, the most pessimistic industries for China's economic situation are leather, fur, feather (velvet) and its products, accounting for 50% of the industry , followed by the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, whose proportions also exceeded 40%. The most optimistic industries are the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water, with a proportion of 40% (Figure 22).

Figure 22 Enterprises' judgment on China's economic development (by industry)

By region, the situation is generally similar, with more companies in each region holding a pessimistic view of China's economic development than those holding an optimistic view. Among them, the proportion of pessimists in the Bohai Rim region is the largest, accounting for 35%, and the proportion of optimists is the least, accounting for 20%. Therefore, the proportion of the two is the largest, reaching 15%. The development trend is more uncertain. The region with the smallest proportion of companies that believe that China's economy is overheating and will face downside risks is the western region. The central region is the region with the largest proportion of companies that believe that China's economy is still on the rise, and the central region is the only region where the proportion of optimists exceeds that of pessimists, indicating that companies in this region are more optimistic about China's economic development. This is basically consistent with the economic trend of China's industrial central and western regions growing faster than the eastern region this year; it can also be judged that the industrial growth in the central and western regions, especially the central region, will still be faster than that in the eastern region in the second half of this year (Figure 23).

Figure 23 Enterprises' judgment on China's economic development (by region)

VIII. The world economy is sluggish, and it is difficult to get out of the predicament in a short time

The world economy continues to be in a downturn, and it is still difficult to get out of the financial impact of the crisis. More than half (60.75%) of companies believe that the world economy will remain in its current state for a while. 14.07% of companies think that the world economy has passed the winter and are in an upward growth trend, the smallest proportion. 25.18% of companies held a pessimistic view that the world economy still has downside risks (Figure 24).

Figure 24 Enterprises' judgment on the development of the world economy (comparison of the results of the three surveys)

The research group constructed the World Economic Entrepreneurship Index based on the survey data. The indexes of the three surveys were 48.5, 42.5 and 44.5 respectively (as shown in Figure 25). During the period from October 2009 to May 2010, the change index decreased rapidly, but during the period from the last survey to the current survey, the change index slightly increased, indicating that people's pessimism improved slightly .

Figure 25 Changes in the World Economic Change Index

By industry, the industries that are more pessimistic about the development of the world economy are petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling, and non-metallic In the mineral products industry, among these three industries, no company believes that the world economy has passed the winter and is in an upward growth trend. In addition, a more pessimistic industry is the non-ferrous metal smelting, rolling and processing industry, in which half of the companies believe that the world economy has downside risks (Figure 26).

Figure 26 Enterprises' judgment on the world economic development situation (by industry)

In terms of regions, the most pessimistic region about the world economic development situation is the Yangtze River Delta region, which believes that the world economy still has downside risks 28.25% of the total number of enterprises believe that the world economy has passed the difficulties, and 13.20% of the enterprises are in the rising stage, and the former is more than twice the latter. The most optimistic region is the central region. 20% of the companies in the central region believe that the world economy is in a rising stage, and 21.88% of the companies believe that the world economy will decline. The two are almost the same (Figure 27).

Figure 27 Enterprises' judgment on the development of the world economy (by region)

9. Insufficient supply of middle and senior talents has become one of the bottlenecks of economic growth

From an overall point of view, it is relatively difficult for enterprises to recruit employees at all levels. 54.18%, 54.11% and 48.12% of enterprises considered that it was difficult to recruit skilled workers, senior management talents and engineers respectively, indicating that the market has serious structural unemployment. In addition, even the demand for ordinary workers who lack skills and knowledge is difficult to meet in the market. 40.98% of companies have difficulty in recruiting, and only 21.29% are companies with very easy recruitment. The former is almost twice that of the latter. This is contradictory to the existence of a large number of rural surplus labor in China. The possible reason is that due to the impact of the financial crisis, the income of migrant workers working in cities has declined, which has led to the phenomenon of "returning hometown", which has caused companies to recruit ordinary people. Difficulties for workers (Figure 28).

Figure 28 The current situation of the company's recruitment of various types of employees (comparison of the two survey results)

Different weights are given to different recruitment states, and the company's recruitment state index is calculated. Comparing the recruitment status of various types of employees in the two survey results, Table 1 is obtained. It can be seen from Table 1 that, in general, the recruitment status index of various types of employees in the two surveys is less than 3, indicating that companies in the market generally face difficulties in recruiting employees. Comparing the recruitment situation of different employees, it can be found that compared with other employees, ordinary workers have the best recruitment situation, and the worst are senior management talents, which reflects the serious imbalance of labor supply and demand structure in my country's market. From the perspective of time development, the recruitment status index of the second survey is lower than that of the first survey, which reflects that compared with October 2009, the recruitment situation this year is more difficult. The index was 2.45, and by August 2010, the overall hiring index had dropped to a level of 2.25.

Table 1 Enterprise Recruitment Status Index Table

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In terms of industries, the most difficult industry to recruit ordinary workers is the cultural, educational and sporting goods manufacturing industry. The number of companies facing recruitment difficulties accounts for 75%, which is higher than the number of companies that can easily recruit ordinary workers (8.33%). ) by 66.77 percentage points. The leather, fur, feather (velvet) and its product industries have the most difficulty in recruiting skilled workers. 80% of the companies are facing a shortage of skilled workers. No company can easily recruit skilled workers. The difference between the former and the latter is 80%. , this may be due to the rapid improvement of technology in this industry, resulting in a shortage of skilled workers in the market. For the recruitment of engineers and senior management talents, the extractive industry is the most difficult industry, which is related to the high industry prosperity of the extractive industry in recent years.

Table 2 Statistical table of the most difficult enterprises to recruit all kinds of employees

From the perspective of regions, other coastal regions have the most difficulty in recruiting ordinary workers, with the largest proportion of companies saying that it is difficult to recruit, reaching 52.05%, and 15.20% of companies saying that it is very easy to recruit; the most optimistic region is the central region Regions, in the central region, 25% of the companies said that it was difficult to recruit, and 33.75% of the companies said that it was very easy to recruit. It can be seen that the supply and demand of ordinary workers in the central region are relatively balanced. Recruitment of skilled workers is the most difficult in the Yangtze River Delta region, with the largest proportion of companies saying that it is difficult to recruit, accounting for 62.27%, and only 4.33% of companies say that recruiting is very easy; the western region is more optimistic about recruiting, but it is also in trouble. The region with the most difficulty in recruiting engineers is the central region, where 53.13% of the companies said it was difficult to recruit engineers, and 5.63% of the companies said it was very easy to recruit engineers. Recruitment of senior management talents is the most difficult in the western region. 60.00% of the companies said it was difficult to recruit, and only 10.59% of the companies said it was very easy to recruit. It is difficult to recruit engineers and senior management talents in the relatively backward central and western regions, indicating that insufficient supply of senior talents is still the soft underbelly of the development of the central and western regions.

There are three results that the company expects to change in the price of raw materials in the future, namely "continuously decreasing", "basically flat" and "continuously increasing", which are given weights according to the transition sequence, 1, 3 and 5, respectively. Then each survey can get a price increase index, which is the product of the percentage and weight of each expected result, and then add up. The final price increase index is between 1 and 5, and the linear transformation is performed according to 1=0, 5=100, and finally a price increase index between 1 and 100 is obtained, which is the price increase index corresponding to "basically the same". 50 is the limit, less than 50 means that the expected result is a decline in prices, and greater than 50 means that the expected result is a rise in prices. This method is used for all calculations involving indices in the following parts of the article.