What is a cell phone?

On June 6, 2012, nearly a year after Xiaomi's mobile phone "turned out", Shanda Guoke launched a smartphone of the same brand as its e-book Bambook. As early as the end of last year, Baidu announced its entry into mobile phones and launched a smart phone embedded in the Baidu Easy platform in cooperation with Dell.

It was Qihoo 360 that pushed the competition of Internet companies to make mobile phones to the top. In May of this year, Zhou Hong, chairman of Qihoo 360, announced on Weibo that it would jointly launch 360 special supply machines with Huawei. According to Xiaomi company personnel, as soon as the news came out, Xiaomi held a meeting overnight to arrange a response. Soon, on Kingsoft Internet Security and Kingsoft PowerWord, there will be a new frame that invites users to buy Xiaomi mobile phones.

Lao Yao, founder of Lao Yaoba commented: "Xiaomi represents the first round of the impact of the Internet on the mobile phone industry, and the 360-user special supply machine promotes the second round of shocks. The last round of shocks must come from Tencent, but only The time is to be determined."

When these Internet giants either pull traditional hardware mobile phone manufacturers, or "build up" their own phones and enter the smartphone market, the definition of mobile phones is also being changed. Such changes will make The mobile phone industry caused a chain reaction.

From the phone to the mobile terminal

From the 1999 yuan Xiaomi, to the 1499 yuan 360 special machine Huawei Shine, and then to the 1299 yuan Shanda Bambook, Internet companies have changed their smartphones from four to five thousand yuan. The positioning was suddenly pulled to the thousand-yuan level.

"Xiaomi's real subversion is not to rely on hardware to make money... I don't want to pay back within 3 to 5 years." Lei Jun, the founder of Xiaomi Technology, known as "Rebs", has defined the new profit model of Internet mobile phones from the very beginning. . Guo Chaohui, CEO of Shanda Guoke, also stated: "We are almost wiping the cost, and even selling this mobile phone at a slight loss." Zhou Hong also made it clear that the 360 special machine is zero profit. Zhou Hong also believes that "it is difficult to maintain a business model purely by selling hardware, and profits will become lower and lower. As a mobile terminal, the future trend of mobile phones will be 'free'".

Lei Jun once concluded that the key to the success of Apple's iPhone lies in the triathlon of "software + hardware + Internet services", and Xiaomi wants to replicate this "Apple" model in the Chinese market first. Therefore, the Miui mobile phone level 2 operating system based on the Andriod system insists on weekly updates; at the same time, it is customized on demand, online marketing and sales, and the channel and publicity costs thus saved are used to ensure low prices.

Low prices can achieve a large-scale market. Zhou Hong believes that the market will "explode" when smartphones are sold below 1,000 yuan. The large-scale market is the resource pool where Internet services can make money.

The latest research data from iResearch shows that China's smartphone shipments in 2012 are expected to reach 113 million units. Mobile phones are no longer just voice devices for calls, but mobile terminals with PC functions. Smart phones have triggered people's beautiful "reverie" of the mobile Internet market. The invasion and penetration of the mobile phone market by Internet companies is also regarded as a "enclosure war" for the entrance to the mobile Internet market. In Lao Yao's view, everyone (Internet companies and mobile phone manufacturers) has a sense of crisis. If mobile phone companies do not embrace the Internet, more and more Internet mobile phones will appear in the future, which will make the survival of traditional mobile phone brands even more difficult. , If Internet companies do not switch to the mobile Internet, and users will not use PCs and only use mobile phones to surf the Internet in the future, they themselves may be dead ends.

The two seemingly unrelated industries have "meeted". Next, is it a tragic "confrontation" with each other, or is it "integration" to complement each other?

Balance of soft and hard, light and heavy

According to the latest survey of research institute Asymco, in the first quarter of 2012, the revenue of Apple's iPhone division accounted for 73% of the total profit of the entire mobile phone industry. Mao Xinsheng, dean of IBM's Institute of Innovation and Engineering, said: "Apple's profits today may mainly come from hardware, but the content provided by its iTunes, App store, and even the iCloud that it is doing are all to help it build a closed system. With customers As the group grows larger and larger, these contents and services will eventually become the revenue points in the future."

Different from Mao Xinsheng's optimism that mobile phones rely on services to make profits, Lao Yao believes that it is possible in terms of trends, but it will not be possible in the short term. It cannot be concluded that it is possible to make money by relying on software and services. After all, there is no such precedent at home and abroad, but he does not deny that it is possible for Apple to do this.

So in the face of an unrepeatable "example" like Apple, should Internet companies or mobile phone manufacturers train themselves to be all-rounders, or should they be participants in a harmonious ecological chain?

Apple's ios closed system has guaranteed its monopoly to some extent, while Andriod's open-source operating system platform has provided the possibility for Chinese smartphones to leapfrog. According to the data in February 2012, Android has occupied 52.5% of the global smartphone operating system market, and the Chinese market share is 68.4%.

Lei Jun, who takes Steve Jobs as his idol, has become a pioneer in making mobile phones with Internet thinking in China. He uses Xiaomi mobile phones, Miui operating system based on Android, and Mi Chat to create his own triathlon. Relying on the positioning of mobile phone enthusiasts and Internet marketing, Xiaomi's mobile phone brand became "a household name" overnight. Zhou Hong once ridiculed traditional manufacturers for this, "You have made mobile phones for more than ten years, and the shipments are much more than Xiaomi, but they are not like Xiaomi. famous". As of June 13, Xiaomi's mobile phone shipments have accumulated to 3 million units. These marketing and e-commerce tactics of Xiaomi have opened the eyes of traditional mobile phone manufacturers, but it is very difficult for them to pick up such guys to fight. As a result, Internet manufacturers such as 360 saw an opportunity to cut in. "We have Internet genes, we are born with these things, and what we lack is the genes to make mobile phones, so we can work together." Zhou Hong said in June At the Suzhou meeting of Lao Yaoba, traditional mobile phone vendors were encouraged. "I am willing to use the resources of 400 million users to help you promote." "Xiaomi's way of playing is actually a 360 city."

The reason why 360 chose to cooperate with traditional mobile phone manufacturers, Zhou Hong said, is to avoid funds on the one hand Supply chain issues such as occupancy, inventory, and after-sales (and this is also the current problem faced by Xiaomi mobile phones). On the other hand, pre-installing 360 security software in mobile phones can ensure future market share on the mobile Internet. In addition, Zhou Hong is also full of confidence in mobile value-added services: "The value-added services that I can see, the first is games, the second is reading, and the third is video, these three are currently the most likely Chinese users are willing to pay. of". Of course, these profits will be shared with mobile phone manufacturers.

The reason why value-added services on mobile phones can make money, Mao Xinsheng believes, "The Internet, as a new channel, has led to the emergence of new service delivery methods. For example, music has changed from traditional CD sales to online self-service sales. For example, increasing storage does not need to expand the local hard disk, but can rent cloud disks, etc. Obviously, such changes have spawned more and more mobile applications, and these applications have intensified the transformation of mobile phones into mobile terminals, and such transformation has made Mobile phones are no longer the main source of profit in the industry chain, and the mobile service behind this mobile terminal has been given greater profit expectations."

Such a transformation is being irresistibly deduced. According to Zhou Hong, "Whoever does not comply with this change may be eliminated." The giants of the feature phone era such as Nokia and Motorola were left behind by Apple because they failed to grasp the "smart" opportunity. "Traditional companies are generally asset-heavy, while Internet companies are generally asset-light. Asset-heavy companies use new channels to unload assets and integrate with the Internet; at the same time, with the business expansion of asset-light companies, Internet companies such as Xiaomi Mobile Making mobile phones has already added heavy assets, and this trend is inevitable." Mao Xinsheng pointed out that the two industries "evolved" from two directions to the middle, and when a certain balance of assets is reached, new forms of companies will emerge. . In order to become this new species, Google acquired the motorcycle mobile business for $12.5 billion, and some other Internet giants are also looming in the rumors of acquiring mobile phone companies.

Zhou Hong holds different views on Mao Xinsheng's theory of corporate evolution. "There is no need for Internet companies to be asset-heavy." He believes that "heavy assets and asset-light companies operate in different ways. Even if Google acquires Motomobile, it is still operating independently. However, traditional mobile phone manufacturers that are asset-heavy You must build your own Internet business and services."

What will the new ecosystem of mobile phones look like?

Apple has formed an enviable ecosystem around mobile devices. So, can Xiaomi and 360's agitation on the mobile phone industry have an industrial chain effect like Apple's?

Although Lei Jun has always longed for such an Apple circle, he also thinks that it is difficult to build an ecological chain. "With the changes in mobile phones in the past two decades, there are not many companies that have formed an ecological chain. It is early Nokia that formed the ecological chain, and today's Apple and Google. Even Microsoft's WP has not formed an industry chain. Can you imagine the difficulty? Mass users, a complete and consistent development platform, and a reasonable distribution model are all indispensable. "I meet Apple's thousands of people. In contrast, the fragmented state of the Android system requires developers to adapt to hundreds of models. According to data, there are currently 2.2 million developers on the Andriod platform, but the revenue is only 7% of that of ios application developers.

In the ecological environment of fragmented creativity, how to form a reasonable division mode? This inevitably involves the game between Internet companies and mobile phone manufacturers.

In Zhou Hong's view, there are only four development directions for traditional mobile phone manufacturers: "Either become Foxconn, and rely on large-scale foundry to win; or become Qualcomm, control component technology; or become Apple, rely on brands to control the industry chain. Domestically, Huawei is also trying to find a way of innovation through brand and chip development, and Lenovo through brand and terminal matrix. If we don’t follow these three ways, then embracing the Internet and exploring a new way of win-win cooperation is the only way.”

Lao Yao believes that the first-tier manufacturers in the mobile phone industry (Zhong, Hua, Ku, and Lian) are most likely to embark on the fourth road of innovation. Pan Jiutang, an electronics industry analyst, agrees with this prediction: "In the end, it will be the relatively large traditional mobile phone brand manufacturers who can make a profit." However, is embracing the Internet a priority for traditional manufacturers? Pan Jiutang doesn't think so. "At present, there is still a lot of profit space in the smartphone market. Manufacturers are still busy sharing this big cake. They can't ignore this market." Moreover, he does not think that the future of smartphones There is really no money to be made.

What will the future mobile phone ecosystem look like? Lao Yao predicted, "In the future, there will be four or five chip solution companies in the upstream, 20 or more companies in the middle, and many companies in the downstream." In his view, "Who has the ability to use the Internet Whoever builds his own brand has the potential to be a winner."