How far will the gold price "600 market" go?

International gold prices are on the rise. In January, the international gold price started from a low of $544.6/oz on March 23, broke through the previous high of $575/oz, and successfully reached $600/oz on April 11 (according to the RMB on April 20). For the US dollar market, it is approximately equal to the psychological integer mark of 154.57 yuan / gram. However, this round of the market did not stop there. On April 18, the Asian gold market shot up again, reaching a new high in 25 years at a price of US$623.8/oz, and the domestic gold price also exceeded 160 yuan/gram.

For 2006, the price of gold will exceed 600 US dollars / ounce, the market has long expected. But the prevailing forecast was that gold prices would not reach that level until the second half of the year. No one thought that this wave of market conditions in April would push the price of gold to a high point in advance.

Multiple factors contributed to the sharp rise in gold prices

It can be said that although the sharp rise in gold prices this time is abnormal, it is also expected. The sharp rise in the price of gold in this round is determined by a combination of factors.

The direct trigger is the deteriorating Iranian nuclear crisis. On March 29, the Security Council issued a statement to Iran, requiring Iran to stop all activities related to uranium enrichment within 30 days, but met with Iran's tough attitude. This increases the panic of the world market about the future political situation, and the hedging function of gold will stimulate market investors to continuously buy gold, increasing the investment demand for gold. On the other hand, Iran, as an important oil exporting country, the nuclear issue directly caused the international oil price to rise, the crude oil price rose to US$71 per barrel, an increase of 10% in less than a month, and became the "engine of the gold price rise" ".

At the same time, the coordinated rise of precious metals driven by silver has fully started. The New York Stock Exchange recently announced that it will launch its first silver ETF. This means that the silver market will increase investment demand by at least 1,900 tons, which also motivates the price of silver to rise from US$10/oz to US$14/oz in just one month, while driving gold, platinum, Prices of precious metals such as palladium rose in tandem.

It's also worth mentioning the U.S. dollar figures. In the foreign exchange market in the past month, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the euro and the US dollar against the Australian dollar have fallen. The recent data released by the Federal Reserve shows that the continuous interest rate hike policy of the US dollar is coming to an end. Expectations of continued rate hikes. The dollar's decline has pushed the dollar-denominated gold price higher.

In addition, it is worthwhile for investors to pay attention that, similar to the gold price breaking above $500 in December last year, the gold price rose sharply this time, and Asian buying played a positive role in it. An important reason is that the involvement of large-scale speculative funds in Japan has driven up the price of gold.

From this we can see that the price of gold has risen sharply again, which is inseparable from the fueling of many factors.

How to operate gold investment in the future

Judging from the current gold price trend, the gold price still showed a strong upward momentum after breaking through the psychological barrier of $600. But what investors are concerned about is how long this wave can last?

ICBC's gold analyst Zhang Yong believes that in the long run, the bull market in the gold market is still worth looking forward to. His expectation is that this year the price of gold will reach 650-680 US dollars / ounce position. But in the short term, the end of April will be an important time "gate". "This is because in terms of time, the start of this round of the market generally coincides with the time when the Security Council announced the time limit for resolving the Iranian nuclear issue. It is foreseeable that if the Iranian issue turns around by the end of April, the price of gold will inevitably fall out of favor and pull back sharply. It will be inevitable. On the contrary, if the situation deteriorates further, the price of gold will not stop there."

Therefore, he suggested that investors who have established positions can find a suitable time to sell profits before the end of April and realize "The bag is safe". But at present, for new investors, the risk of entering the market is too great, and they can wait until the price of gold pulls back and absorb the dips at the position of 570-580 US dollars per ounce.

Bank of China trader Xu Ming's point of view is that from a technical point of view, due to the breakthrough of the strong resistance of $574.50 an ounce previously created, the price has now turned into a lower support for the international gold price. Judging from the price in the past four months, the international gold price has formed a double bottom pattern near US$535/oz, and the breakthrough of the neckline position will push up the international gold price to continue to rise in the short term this year. From the perspective of the market outlook, overbought will lead to a possible correction in the price of gold. As long as it does not fall below $575/oz, the price of gold will not suffer a 7% drop from $575/oz to $535/oz in February this year. Speculation, the market outlook is expected to ascribe to 650 US dollars / ounce.

Gold investors have a lot of income

The high gold price will directly benefit the gold investors. The continuously rising gold price has made them a lot of money. Liu Yang is one of them.

Liu Yang is the first batch of customers after the launch of Shanghai ICBC's "Gold Expert" business. He entered the gold market in early November 2004. Although he has been investing in gold for less than two years, he has accumulated rich investment experience. Liu Yang told reporters that he was not surprised that the price of gold broke through $600.

"The trend of gold prices is closely related to the international situation. A typical example is that the United States entered Iraq in 2004. Affected by this, the international gold price has stepped out of the continuous low situation for many years and entered an upward channel. "Therefore, since the Spring Festival, Liu Yang began to pay close attention to the Iranian nuclear issue." On the one hand, the unstable situation in Iran will cause changes in the world political situation and attract safe-haven funds into the gold market; on the other hand, Iran It is another oil-producing country, and the price of gold has a close relationship with oil prices. As Iran's attitude becomes increasingly tough, I realize that the price of gold is likely to reach a higher position. "Although the price of gold has continued for more than a month. Consolidation, Liu Yang did not panic, but increased the position.

"In late March, the market showed signs of rising. An important sign is that the trading volume in the international market has increased significantly." According to his own experience in the gold market, Liu Yang immediately Realize that there is likely to be a lot of money coming into the market. Sure enough, within a few days, the price of gold came out of the multi-day oscillating situation, and the price of gold rose all the way, setting new historical highs in the past 25 years.

In order to avoid the risks in gold investment, Liu Yang also created a set of "one-third" rule. "Some people may think that when the price of gold has risen to the psychological level of $600 per ounce, the motivation for the market outlook has been insufficient. But in fact, when the international situation is still unclear and speculative funds have not left the market, the price of gold is still rising. space." So Liu Yang divided his gold investment into three parts, one for holding gold, one for purchasing, and the third for shipping. In this way, he can always maintain one-third of the funds for funds to be called at any time, and change his operations according to the market situation of gold.

Liu Yang took out a small book that recorded his gold transactions and gave reporters an example. "Look, this operation was done in March 2005. At that time, the psychological price I determined was 117.8 yuan/gram. Around this psychological price, I set several gears up and down. For example, the upper gear was 119 yuan/gram and 121 yuan/gram, the lower level is 115 yuan/gram and 113 yuan/gram, if the gold price reaches the upper level, I will sell one-third of my gold, and when it reaches the lower level, I will buy one-third. One gold."

Through such a rolling operation, Liu Yang's gold holdings have been maintained at 1/3-2/3, and he has never been dissatisfied with his positions, "because the price in the gold market changes rapidly, there are I have one-third of the funds in hand, and I can make adjustments at any time." Liu Yang also did not clear the position. "Without all the positions, the rate of return may be very high for a while, but for investors, the next step is to find If the market trend is not ideal, the long-term yield will be affected. Take recent events, on April 12, many people liquidated all the gold in their hands at once, although the profit is not high. Not much, but the price of gold continues to rise. If they cover their positions again, the cost will go up all of a sudden, and the risk will also be high. And I still hold one-third of the position, which can be attacked and reserved for when the price of gold rises even higher. Throw it out; retreat and defend, even if the price of gold falls, I won't lose anything."

For the future trend of gold price, Liu Yang's answer is very straightforward, "I think in the short term, the price of gold will definitely make a correction. , so it is still very risky to enter the market now. But in the second half of the year, the price of gold will continue to rise. As long as you are optimistic about this market, gold investors will not worry about making no money." His insights may bring speculation to speculators. Some useful revelations from the Goldsmiths.