It is difficult to change the face of RMB wealth management to achieve high returns

The once moribund RMB wealth management business has regained its vitality. In the past February and March, the restructured RMB wealth management products staged a "big face change". Not only the expected return rate on the surface has been greatly improved compared to the past, but also the income structure has followed the example of foreign exchange wealth management products. Products and RMB wealth management products with floating income have become the mainstream of the market.

However, in today's increasingly "conceptualized" product structure, RMB wealth management products have also changed the image of "stable" in the past, and the "expected return" claimed by the bank has become more and more difficult to achieve.

There are hidden risks behind the high returns of floating products

If you don't know anything about the investment market, but you are still counting on getting a share of the RMB wealth management products, unfortunately, such opportunities have become less and less. For a long time, RMB wealth management has been faced with the dilemma of a single investment channel and too many products, but the advent of new RMB wealth management products has completely broken this unfavorable situation.

For example, RMB financial management is also popular nowadays, and its design complexity is no less than that of foreign exchange financial products. In an era when wealth management products are relatively scarce, as long as there is a slight increase in income, some people will flock to them, and if you add a guaranteed capital or even the lowest yield equivalent to the interest rate of current deposits, it will of course be more popular. However, it has to be pointed out that, unlike the high returns of foreign exchange wealth management products, although the market risks faced by RMB-linked wealth management products are not inferior, the expected returns that investors may obtain are greatly reduced.

Variety 1. Simple linking

Complex index: ★★☆☆☆

Representative product: "Jinbo June Bear" local currency six-month product

Expected maximum return: 3.4%

This type of investment product is the simplest of the current structured RMB wealth management products, and investors only need to have a basic judgment of "bullish" or "bearish". Investors' investment income is linked to the international gold price, and it is the spot price. If the spot price of gold per ounce on October 11, 2006 falls relative to the spot price of gold per ounce on April 11, 2006, and the decline is not less than $40, then the annual return on investment of this product is 3.4 %; otherwise, the annual return on the investment is 0.20%. The implied expectation of this product is that international gold prices will fall over the next six months, and by at least $40.

At present, the price of gold is approaching the $600 mark, and the upward momentum is infinitely optimistic today. To make this judgment requires a "distinct eye" for the gold market. However, compared to directly speculating in gold, the biggest advantage of structured products is that there is a minimum return of 0.20%, which can preserve capital.

Variety 2, capital-guaranteed stock index-linked type

Complex index: ★★★☆☆

Representative product: product linked to the US Dow Jones stock index

Expected maximum return: 5%

This is the first pure RMB wealth management product launched in China that is linked to the US Dow Jones stock index. The issuer said that investors can invest in financial products linked to the Dow Jones stock index in RMB without going abroad, which will undoubtedly make a lot of money.

In the complex product design, the reporter basically understands one point. The best investment situation is that the Dow Jones Industrial Index must rise by a large margin in the next two years and meet the conditions set by the bank. Only then can the product reach 5 % of the highest annual rate of return. At worst, it is possible to invest for 2 years without any gain. At present, the Dow Jones index is close to a historical high, and it is not easy to obtain a large increase from such a high starting point (about 20% in 2 years).

For this type of products linked to overseas stock indexes, investors need to pay attention to two points: First, whether this market is a market you are familiar with. If you are not familiar with it, of course there is no reason for you to give up the recovering domestic stock market and go to a stock market that you don't know much about to get returns; the second is the highest return you can get. The premise of taking high risk is the possibility of obtaining higher returns. If this income is not considerable or even limited, it is worth your careful consideration.

Variety 3. Exchange rate linked type

Complex index: ★★★★☆

Representative product: RMB wealth management product linked to the exchange rate of a bank and the euro against the US dollar

This kind of product seems simple, but in fact it is more risky, because the realization of expected benefits requires strict constraints. For example, a bank is linked to the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar. The annual yield of the product is linked to the EUR/USD exchange rate. The entire product duration is divided into two observation periods: April 11, 2006 - July 11; July 11, 2006 - October 9, 2006, the corresponding EUR/USD exchange rate preset observation period The interval is [reference rate -0.050, reference rate +0.050], including the boundary point.

If the EUR/USD exchange rate does not break out of the preset exchange rate range during the two observation periods, the investor's annual rate of return is 3.46%; If the euro-dollar exchange rate breaks out of the preset exchange rate range in both observation periods, the investor's annual rate of return is 0.96%.

Maybe ordinary investors have no concept of the exchange rate fluctuations of the euro against the dollar. Let's take an example: the poor economic data in the euro zone on March 23 caused the real-time exchange rate of the euro against the dollar to drop from 1.2160 to 1.2070, with a single-day fluctuation of more than 0.090. It can be seen that it is not easy to keep the EUR/USD within the range of ±0.05 for a period of time, so it is very difficult to achieve a gain of 3.46%.

Not only that, but another risk of this product is that investors can choose to pay in USD or RMB, and the income is calculated on the nominal principal, specifically: nominal principal = RMB transaction principal / USD/RMB exchange rate. This invisibly makes it easy for investors to fall into another misunderstanding - paying income in US dollars. Under the premise of accelerating the appreciation of the RMB, this move will obviously greatly reduce the actual return of the investment.

The expected return of fixed income products declines

In today's popularity of floating income products, the expected return of fixed income products is slightly lower than in the past. The current RMB 1-year deposit interest rate is 2.25%, but time deposits are subject to 20% interest tax, and the after-tax yield is about 1.8%, so several banks' RMB wealth management products are compared with this.

At the end of March, ICBC Shanghai Branch and China Everbright Bank Shanghai Branch launched fixed-income local currency wealth management products, of which ICBC's "Wondeli" product has a fixed term of one year, and the subscription amount is between 50,000 and 100,000 yuan (not The expected rate of return between (inclusive) is 2.15%; the expected rate of return for subscriptions above 100,000 yuan (inclusive) is 2.35%; and Everbright Bank's "A+ Plan" for Sunshine Wealth Management, which includes one-year RMB wealth management products, is a The traditional type linked to the interbank bond market, with an expected annual yield of just 2.3%. The income of both products is lower than the average annual income of RMB wealth management products of more than 2.5% in the same period last year. The income of RMB-like bonds (including central bank bills, financial bonds, short-term government bonds, etc.) has also been declining.

As a result, the fixed income of RMB wealth management products and money market funds did not widen the gap, but on the contrary, they showed disadvantages in terms of investment threshold and liquidity. For example, the threshold for RMB wealth management products is generally above 50,000 yuan, with a term ranging from 1 to 2 years, and usually neither banks nor individuals have the right to redeem in advance. Compared with money market funds, the charm of RMB wealth management has also been greatly reduced.

You can pay attention to the RMB products that invest in short-term financing bonds

But it is worth paying attention to the RMB bond wealth management plan that China Merchants Bank continues to issue. Its latest product No. 16, the investment scope is A-1+ credit rating or above. Enterprise short-term financing bills----06 Jingcheng Electromechanical CP, the company has good credit, the credit rating is the highest domestic short-term financing bills, and the risk is relatively low. The product term is 355 days, and the principal and interest will be repaid at maturity. According to the bond investment portfolio, the expected yield of this wealth management product is 2.50%.

This reflects the new investment orientation of RMB wealth management fixed income products. It is reported that after China Merchants Bank, many banks included the short-term financing bills of enterprises into their investment scope, and some experts even boldly predicted that whichever bank mastered the short-term financing bills would occupy the strategic highland of RMB wealth management. The "savings-like" RMB wealth management products with short-term treasury bonds and central bank bills as their investment will gradually fade out of the market.

Recently, China Central Government Bond Registration Corporation announced the issuance of short-term financing bills in March. Last month, there were "06 Railway Second Bureau CP01", "06 Unicom CP01", "06 Railway Second Bureau CP01", "06 Shanghai Electric Power Company" 22 short-term financing bills including "CP01" were issued, with a total amount of 22.15 billion yuan, almost doubling compared to February. Along with the total issuance, the yield of short-term financing bills in March also increased. Taking 1-year short-term financing bills as the benchmark, the simple average yield of short-term financing bills in March was 3.28%. This means that banks with lead underwriting qualifications can fully allocate high-yield RMB wealth management products by relying on "short-term financing bills".

According to the data in March, China Everbright Bank ranked first with 6.8 billion yuan in lead underwriting performance; China Merchants Bank ranked second with 6.5 billion yuan in short-term bond underwriting; Bank of China ranked second with 2.5 billion yuan in lead underwriting performance In third place; Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank ranked fourth and fifth respectively.